The retaliatory attacks being carried out by Israeli defense forces in Gaza following the savage attack by Hamas has diverted the world’s attention from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is difficult to fathom the reason for the brutal attacks carried out by the terrorist organisation. Equally intriguing is the appalling intelligence failure on part of the much feared and acclaimed Mossad — the espionage wing that is mandated by Tel Aviv to collect intelligence inputs and ensure national security.
The stories doing rounds on social media that Israel could have “allowed” Hamas to carry out such “surprise” attacks to justify a retaliation (for political dividends) does not hold water. Israel does not need an alibi to attack Hamas which has been carrying out such assaults on the country for more than a decade now. Founded in 1987 as a radical outfit avowed to destroy Israel, Hamas seized power in 2007 when the election in 2006 resulted in anarchy as the Hamas-supported candidates won a majority in Gaza defeating the Fatah party. The fanatically radical Hamas is reported to have targeted saner elements even in Palestinian society and killed many of them during the 2014 conflict with Israel, suspecting them to be supporters of the Jewish people.
Bilateral conflicts, global repercussions
Going by the increasing domination of Hamas in the Gaza strip, it is evident that it no longer represents the moderate and saner elements in Palestine. By inflicting a savage attack on civilians and holding them as hostages, Hamas has practically defeated the cause of Palestine and made it difficult for neutral countries like India to continue advocating a negotiated peaceful solution to the Israel-Palestine differences.
Of late, India has been heavily investing in upgrading defence technologies through imports and technology transfer agreements even while emphasising on scaling up indigenous production through several Atmanirbhar Bharat schemes. Israel is among the top technologically endowed militaries in the world and yet fell victim to the surprise terror attack by Hamas. There can be no alternative to superior ground force and military preparedness coupled with strong intelligence input systems in place.
Going by the recent Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts and other long festering flash points around the globe, it is clear that many of these bilateral conflicts are assuming larger proportions spilling over to immediate and extended neighbourhood. The emerging multilateral geopolitical contours inadvertently, or otherwise ensure that every bilateral conflict becomes global in some proportion or the other.
Also read: Yes, Israel has wronged Palestinians. But that’s not the immediate issue, terrorism is
Where India stands
As an emerging power rearing to play enhanced role in global affairs, India will have to take a nuanced stand on these conflicts while maintaining our principled stand that war is not the solution to any of them and every conflict if not avoidable has a negotiated settlement. In the case of Israel, every dispensation in New Delhi has been saying the same thing. India has been a supporter of the legitimate rights of the people of Palestine but at the same time continued to emphasise on peaceful negotiations between the two parties for a peaceful settlement.
From recognising Israel in 1950 to opening a trade office and opening of embassies in 1992, India-Israel cooperation has reached newer heights. After the State visit by former President Pranab Mukherjee in October 2015, Prime Minister Modi’s visit in 2018, the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Israel, paved the way for upgrading bilateral relations to strategic cooperation and agreements on several fields like water, agriculture, outer space and importantly defence technology. Bilateral trade between the two countries is around $5.65 billion with balance of trade in India’s favour by about $1.8 billion.
The game changer India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) announced during the successful G20 summit held in New Delhi last month will surely face teething troubles now. Except Saudi Arabia, the rest of the countries in this project have supported Israel and have condemned Hamas in unequivocal terms. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already initiated sanctions against the Palestinian Authority (PA) and might further tighten financial transactions with PA. The US has not ruled out imposing even tougher economic sanctions on Iran in the wake of the ongoing conflict where Tehran is seen as supporting and sympathising with Hamas in its attacks on Israel.
Even if the punitive action against Hamas ends in a few days or weeks, the fallout of this conflict will linger for long. The Abraham Accords between Israel and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in September 2020 brokered by the Trump administration promised to ensure peace, negotiated settlement for conflicts and establish diplomatic relations between Israel and its neighbours in the region for lasting peace in the Middle East and around the world. The masterminds of the Hamas attack have sabotaged the sprit of the Abraham agreement and turned the clock back in the region.
On the day of the Hamas attack, global oil prices jumped four per cent but stabilised soon. But a prolonged war and its aftermath will affect oil trade as the major oil suppliers like UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran are in the conflict zone and deeply involved and arrayed against Israel. India’s support to Israel might lead to major differences of opinion with Iran where India’s economic engagement competes with those of China, which has belatedly condemned the attack on Israel without naming Hamas. China waded into Middle East politics by brokering peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia and ensured uninterrupted supply of oil from the Arab world and technological partnerships with Tel Aviv. With this new move of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds Beijing could be strategising to align itself with the pro-Palestine states in the Middle East and emerge as an anti-US pole for these states in the changing geopolitical scenario.
While Hamas needs not only to be condemned but rendered totally powerless of its attack and terror capabilities, the conflict will have to lead to the return of saner elements to power at the helm in Palestine Authority. A democratic dispensation with people committed to negotiated settlement will alone ensure peace and progress in the region. But all this looks possible only after the dust of destruction brought about by the barbarity of radical anti-Israel outfit Hamas settles down.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)