The 2024 general election results are full of lessons for parties to learn from, if they are willing to. It is strange that the BJP is feeling a bit low because it fell short of 32 seats to be able to form a government on its own. The Congress, which won 99 seats and leads the I.N.D.I.A coalition whose final tally is less than the BJP’s, is rejoicing. The reason for this strange anomaly is not far to seek.
The BJP had set a target of 400 plus seats, which it could not achieve and hence the gloom, more in the BJP camp than in the NDA camp. The Congress’ happiness is boundless because it has almost doubled its tally of seats from 2019. The fact is that in several states, the voting percentage of the Congress has actually fallen, more than 10 percent in some. Yet, the fact that the Narendra Modi-led NDA could not reach 400 seats seems to be reason enough for them to gloat.
Both political entities need to see the ground realities sooner than later. Speaking at the party headquarters soon after the election results were announced, Modi specifically mentioned the agenda of the NDA and not that of the BJP, clearly indicating his acceptance of the reality of the dawn of coalition era in politics. His strategy managers quickly contacted Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal United (JD-U) and Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam Party (TDP). It is possible that the Congress too would have approached them, but would have realised the futility of having them on board when it is impossible for them to form a government. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s statement after the opposition group’s meeting that “…the India bloc will continue to fight the fascist rule of the BJP …. will take appropriate steps at the appropriate time…” is a clear indication of their intent to destabilise the NDA government at some point in future.
This should be no cause of worry for the BJP as the Lok Sabha arithmetic does not favour the Congress as of now. But the BJP has several other reasons to worry about and take corrective steps to retain its hold over the government at the Centre and the states.
Also read: 2024 has tell-tale signs of BJP errors. Spend sleepless nights analysing results from UP
What must concern BJP
Maharashtra and Haryana are due for elections this year and in both states, the BJP’s performance in the general election was below expectation of the party’s top leadership. From 23 seats in 2019, the BJP has come down to 9 seats in 2024. With Shiv Sena as its ally, the NDA got 43 seats in 2019 as against 17 in 2024. After the split in Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and veteran politician Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, it was expected that the BJP would gain. But the sympathy factor for the SS and NCP appears to have spoiled the game for the BJP, the Shinde group of Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP.
What should be of concern to these three parties is the possibility of defectors flocking back to the original group, thus deserting the government even before it completes the remaining few months in office in Maharashtra. The BJP could not win even one of the eight seats in Marathwada, the epicentre of Maratha quota agitation, which some observers feel the Shinde government handled badly. The induction of two veteran Congress leaders into the NDA fold was frowned upon by traditional BJP workers and a few leaders who could still be sulking.
In Haryana, where the BJP lost five seats to Congress out of all ten it had won in 2019 is attributed to the mis-handling of the farmers’ agitation and the miscalculations of the caste equations. The party will need a strong leader and better strategy to win the state back and not lose it to a resurgent Congress.
The resurgence of the Congress is evident from the fact that out of the 286 seats where the BJP and the Congress were in a direct contest, the BJP won in 180 (with a strike rate of nearly 63 percent), while the Congress won in 83 seats with a strike rate of 29 percent. The Congress could probably benefit if it strategises to go it alone in future and take on the BJP in a direct contest. This may eventually lead to a robust two-party system where the probabilities of both healthy contest and better convergence could prevail.
The BJP on its part is well-experienced in running a coalition government. It may decide to keep some of the contentious issues like Uniform Civil Code (UCC) out of its agenda for the time being, but eventually, it will have to convince its coalition partners in order to retain the support of its core voter base.
Meanwhile, with the BJP in a strong position to form a government and run it for full term, and the Congress leading the opposition in good measure, it will be in the best interests of the country if both sides could bury the pre-June 4 acrimonies.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)