The Aam Adami Party faced unprecedented defeat in the 2025 Delhi Assembly election. Too much focus is placed on the voters to explain the outcome of this election. We also need to focus on the party per se to understand the electoral outcome because the party also shapes voting behaviour.
The rise of AAP was seen as the Indian manifestation of the emergence of ‘new parties or challenger parties’ in the European democracies that addressed issues ignored by existing parties. The new parties mainly emerged from the anti-establishment movement over issues such as corruption, and claimed to be non-ideological. The AAP also emerged as an anti-establishment party from the India Against Corruption (IAC) Movement claiming to be non-ideological. One critique it faced during its formative years was ideological ambiguity.
Its leaders used to respond that fight against corruption is their ideology. However, corruption was not the central issue for this party in this election. The way AAP has branded itself in the last few elections, it is no longer an anti-establishment party. Its transformative journey explains the electoral performance.
AAP is caught up in the structural challenges that new parties face. Its inability to overcome those structural challenges has made it like other parties. It has been reduced from a challenger party to merely another competitor, which explains its defeat on 8 February.
New party challenges
The new parties that emerged in the last decade faced two structural struggles—media bias and funding dilemmas. It is generally argued that existing media is biased in favour of centrist parties; therefore, it does not positively cover new parties. Similarly, the elections are increasingly becoming costly, and corporate donors hardly support new parties. The established parties also discourage corporate houses from funding new parties. The AAP faced both challenges. It overcame initial media biases through the effective use of social media.
Luckily, AAP got an army of volunteers associated with the IAC. However, the DNA of such volunteers goes to the ‘India Against Reservation’ movement that happened against the implementation of OBC reservations in higher education institutions, particularly IITs and AIIMS. Arvind Kejriwal was also indirectly associated with the ‘India Against Reservation’ movement as he addressed a public meeting of the Youth For Equality in JNU in 2008 which was the driving force behind the anti-reservation movement. Being an alumnus of IIT, he gained the support of such volunteers. Nevertheless, once the party gained power in Delhi, it managed legacy media through advertisement. AAP’s quest for managing media is evident in an increase in the Delhi govt advertisement spending by over 4,200 % from 2012 to 2022.
Delhi government ad spending increased over 4,200 per cent from 2012 to 2022. Managing media was a relatively easy task for the party, more than the management of funds for contesting elections in other states. The way election campaigns have increasingly become costly, the party, that emerged from the womb of the anti-corruption movement, became allegedly involved in corrupt activities. Its aggressive expansion strategy to Goa, Gujrat, Haryana, Uttarakhand, and Punjab forced it to manage funds through controversial means that heavily cost the party.
Also read: AAP’s Delhi model is all about staying in the news. Can’t win elections without ideology
From civic to strategic voting
The successive victories of AAP in the last two assembly elections were strongly an outcome of civic voting found in the urban upper and middle classes. Moreover, AAP managed to win the lower middle-class and the poor voters through its promise of free schemes. Minority voters might have voted for the party due to its strategic consideration of defeating the BJP, which has become its defining feature. However, the growing environmental crisis in Delhi has disillusioned upper and upper-middle-class voters.
Kejriwal’s response to the pollution of the Yamuna River does not bring votes, showing his party lacks a grand vision for a city like Delhi. His response also meant to shift the burden on the people rather than government machinery. Furthermore, the revelation of hefty expenditure on the renovation of the Chief Minister’s bungalow has also dented his public image. The party was merely relying on the strategic voting of minority voters, and to ensure that, it made Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav campaign in its favour.
Competitive populist welfarism
The AAP heavily relied on its populist welfare policies of free water and electricity and bus rides for women. However, the party was not confident in its previous policy bringing sufficient support, and hence, it distributed guarantee cards to provide money after winning the election. Nevertheless, the party faced challenges with the welfare policies of the Modi government. To prevent voters from making comparative analyses of the welfare policies of Modi and Kejriwal, the AAP decided not to target Modi but Amit Shah. It also alleged that the BJP would stop welfare policies. It hoped to benefit from this strategy but the BJP responded by promising to continue welfare policies.
Creating unnecessary moral panic
The rise of AAP was an outcome of the anti-corruption movement which was an example of creating moral panic among voters rather than a real fight against corruption. The AAP had been a beneficiary of that moral panic. Therefore, the party always tried to create some sort of uproar in successive elections. This time, it made sensational allegations against the BJP-led Haryana government for mixing poison in Delhi’s water. However, the party was unable to get the desired reaction from it. It has paid a heavy cost in this election.
As a new party, AAP quickly rushed to follow the path of established parties. Its use of questionable tactics to expand in other states converted it from the true challenger party to just another competitor party. It is evident in its mobilisation strategies around instrumental/strategic voting, vote buying, populist welfare, and the creation of moral panic. However, the negative outcome of the Delhi election would become the Waterloo movement for the AAP in Indian politics as its leadership would start facing a crisis of legitimacy. The social purpose of the party has also ceased to exist.
Arvind Kumar is a Visiting Lecturer in Politics & International Relations at the University of Hertfordshire, UK. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)