Northwest & western India may escape searing May temperatures but east likely to see heatwave, says IMD

Rainfall next month likely to be in the normal range over northwest & other parts. But northeast and east-central India, among others, may see below normal rain, IMD forecast says.

A hot summer day in Bikaner last week | ANI

New Delhi: The northwest and western regions of the country are likely to be spared the searing maximum temperatures that are typical of the May season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast Friday. However, the maximum temperatures are likely to shoot “above normal” over eastern parts of the country, a press release by the department said.

“Above normal” heatwave days are expected over most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, eastern Uttar Pradesh, coastal Andhra Pradesh and some parts of north Chhattisgarh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and coastal Gujarat next month.

Explaining the reason for the heatwave over eastern parts, IMD’s director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told media persons, “If you get very good moisture, it leads to thunderstorm activity over eastern parts of India. This forecast indicates that maybe that thunderstorm activity will be suppressed in May.”

“It could be because of weak anticyclonic activity above the Bay of Bengal. It could also be that whatever western disturbance occurs over northeast India will not affect the eastern part,” he added.

Most parts of the country are expected to experience normal to below normal minimum temperatures except some parts of northwest and east India where “above normal” minimum temperatures are likely in some areas, the press release added.

‘Rainfall to stay in normal range’

According to the IMD forecast, rainfall in May is likely to be within the normal range (91-109 per cent of the long-period average of 61.4mm), although it will issue another forecast by mid-May.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over northwest India, many parts of west-central India and the northern part of peninsular India.

However, the same respite from the heat is unlikely in most parts of northeast India, many parts of east-central India and south peninsular India, where the rainfall is expected to be “below normal”.

In its updated seasonal outlook for the hot months released earlier this month, the IMD had said, that barring the southern peninsular region and some parts of northwest India, most parts of the country would experience above-normal maximum temperatures from April through to June.

The El Niño effect

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation – a recurring climate pattern – is currently neutral, but is likely to develop into an El Niño later in the year, which could affect the latter half of the monsoon, said the IMD forecast.

An El Niño is generally known to adversely affect Indian monsoons and exacerbate drought.

However, another climate phenomenon, called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), could counteract the effect of El Nino, Mohapatra said.

“The latest climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the upcoming season,” said the IMD release.

(Edited by Richa Mishra)