Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 15 (PTI) Sitting in the opposition for the past 10 years in Kerala, it is a do-or-die battle for the Congress-led UDF to wrest power from the LDF in the upcoming Assembly elections.
However, it will not be an easy walkover, with the Left front banking heavily on its development narrative while the BJP-led NDA is also attempting to make inroads in the state with a new found vigour ahead of the April 9 elections.
At the same time, with an immense anti-incumbency factor and riding on its good performance in bypolls, Lok Sabha and local body elections, the UDF is likely to have an upper hand in the upcoming polls if it manages to put up a coordinated effort.
STRENGTHS: 1.A decade old anti-incumbency against the LDF government would be the biggest advantage for the UDF, which was reflected in 2024 the Lok Sabha polls and the civic elections last year. Even Left sympathisers–L Satchidanandan and Sara Joseph have openly voiced concerns against the possibility of a Pinarayi Vijayan 3.0 government.
2.Bypoll performance: The UDF secured victories in four out of five Assembly by-elections since 2021. It tasted defeat only at Chelakkara in 2024, a Left bastion.
3.Runaway victory in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, winning 18 of the 20 seats in Kerala.
4.Consensus among allies, with no major controversies over seat-sharing, a recurring issue in previous Assembly elections.
5.More leaders and parties from rival fronts have joined UDF in in recent years.
WEAKNESSES: 1.Internal factionalism: Although the Congress (A) faction, earlier led by A K Antony and later Oommen Chandy, has lost much of its strength within the party, political observers say there is still internal bickering within the Congress (I) group, previously helbed by late stalwart K Karunakaran, with leaders such as K C Venugopal, K Sudhakaran and Ramesh Chennithala having their own followers.
Top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, during his recent visit to Kerala, openly said at an event that all party leaders should work together, citing the example of a group dance where everyone performs in coordination.
2.Lack of a Chief ministerial candidate, unlike the LDF, which is projecting Pinarayi Vijayan.
OPPORTUNITIES: 1. Strong minority consolidation, with Muslim and Christian votes likely to move towards the front in the upcoming elections.
2. With the BJP gaining strength in the state, the UDF will also hope that the NDA will divide Hindu votes, which could affect the LDF’s prospects and indirectly benefit the Congress-led front.
3.The UDF is also optimistic as the BJP’s attempts to woo Christian voters did not yield significant results in the recent local body elections.
4.Apart from this, the UDF will also try to capitalise on the Sabarimala gold loss incident, which has put the LDF government in a difficult position.
THREATS/CHALLENGES: 1.An intensive campaign by the LDF government highlighting development works and comparing them with the situation during the 2011-2016 UDF regime: This may attract some voters, even though such efforts did not yield the desired results in the civic body polls.
2.UDF leaders openly acknowledging that they have received support from Jamaat-e-Islami and the Welfare Party could alienate some Hindu and Christian voters.
3.Yet to gain the confidence of backward Hindu communities, particularly the Ezhava, which holds a significant share of votes in the state.
4.SNDP leader Vellapally Natesan has often been critical of the UDF and has shown a tilt towards the LDF, while the BDJS led by his son Thushar Vellapally remains an ally of the NDA.
5. Diminishing presence in Thiruvananthapuram is another concern for the front, with the BJP emerging as a key political force after the LDF.
6. BJP’s growing presence in central Kerala districts such as Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha has become another challenge for the UDF.
7.Sexual assault allegations against expelled Congress MLA Rahul Mamkootathil. PTI TBA SA
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