Kolkata, Mar 15 (PTI) The BJP’s repeated attempts to unseat the ruling TMC in West Bengal have fallen short in the last two Assembly elections, leaving a somewhat bitter taste of a so-close-yet-so-far feeling among cross-sections of its leaders and workers, poll observers say.
Even as the Assembly elections present the BJP with yet another opportunity to make a grab for state power, an assessment of the party’s strengths and weaknesses, the opportunities it carries, and the challenges it faces in the run-up to the polls offers deeper insights into the churn with which the saffron brigade hopes to fulfil its aspirations in the state.
Strengths The strengths of the saffron camp in West Bengal stem from its role as the primary opposition to the ruling TMC, which is driven by the state’s anti-incumbency sentiment and a high-profile central leadership spearheaded by Prime Minister Modi. The party has gained traction through ideological polarisation based on its Hindutva appeal, while focusing on corruption and law and order issues.
In the past decade, election results in Bengal highlight that the BJP has managed to absorb the traditional Left and Congress vote base, over and above its core support domain, to establish itself as the state’s principal opposition.
From a party which amassed a mere five per cent vote share in 2001 polls and had won just three seats after contesting in 291 segments in 2016, the party now commands over 39 per cent support share among voters, having 12 MPs and over 65 MLAs. Its high point came in 2019 when the party wrested 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats from Bengal.
The party has gained ground by focusing on alleged corruption in the TMC government – by consistently making its presence felt on the streets and agitating against issues like the school jobs scam – and countering the lack of political space for opposition. The party has also doggedly pursued law and order issues, especially raising red flags on cases of crimes against women.
But the party’s biggest electoral dividends seem to have come from its successes in the domain of ideological polarisation where an overt pro-Hindutva pitch has manifested in support consolidation.
Weakness It seems an irony that one of the BJP’s greatest electoral strengths, the presence of charismatic central leaders at its campaign forefront, has often been turned on its head by the TMC. The ‘Bohiragoto’ (outsider) campaign by the Mamata Banerjee camp has worked well for the party, observers say, and has allowed it to push for the “cultural disconnect” slur on its saffron counterparts to occupy voters’ minds.
In fact, the party’s heavy reliance on the so-called ‘North Indian model’, which promotes divisive issues like CAA-NRC and aggressive Hindutva narratives, has often worked against the party’s prospects, analysts have observed.
The BJP’s overt thrust on the Election Commission’s SIR exercise, according to many, could well lead to eroding its support base among some of its most loyal voting clusters, like the Matuas, who find themselves in the deleted or adjudication list following the publication of final (though incomplete) rolls.
Repeated surfacing of the BJP Bengal unit’s deep internal factionalism, marked by conflicts between its old guards and newcomers (mostly TMC defectors) has cost the party heavily in past elections.
The biggest drawback of the party in Bengal is its weak grassroots organisational machinery. Compared to the TMC’s robust boot-level presence of functionaries, which yields differentiating poll benefits, BJP’s attempts at strengthening grassroots organisation have, so far, met with limited success.
Despite people like Suvendu Adhikari carrying the party’s leadership mantle in the state, the party has failed to come up with a universally accepted face who can match the popularity and charisma of Mamata Banerjee.
Opportunities Despite its weaknesses, significant opportunities lay ahead of the BJP, which has declared its intent of winning the elections. Key opportunities include capitalising on anti-incumbency, promising to fill vacant and cancelled recruitment posts for youth and leveraging a strong, established opposition presence built since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Brewing discontent among voters on issues like corruption, law and order, and development provides BJP the scope of consolidating anti-TMC mandate, more effectively now than in the past.
The party has further scope for gaining grounds within the sharply declining space of the Left and Congress and positioning itself as the only viable alternative to the ruling TMC.
Most importantly, the party’s promises to fill all vacant and cancelled posts, particularly in the education sector, to address unemployment issues of the state’s youth supplies the saffron party with credible chances against the ruling dispensation.
Threats It seems that the foremost challenge before the BJP is to overcome the grassroots organisational might of the TMC with its limited booth-level consolidation and get its supporters to the polling booths to exercise their franchise in a violence-free atmosphere.
To convince voters to accept the party in state power without a credible CM face, as opposed to that of Mamata Banerjee in the ruling camp, could be another daunting task for the BJP.
Banerjee’s hostile campaigns against SIR could leave the BJP in the back foot when the party was hoping that the exercise would tilt the balance in its favour. PTI SMY MNB BDC
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