Guwahati, Mar 15 (PTI) The alliance partners of the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress are likely to play an important role in the assembly elections in Assam.
Besides the BJP, the constituents of the NDA in the state are AGP (nine seats in the outgoing assembly), the UPPL (seven) and the BPF (three).
Four parties — the Congress, CPI(M), AJP and the All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) — have decided on a seat-sharing arrangement and will campaign jointly in the coming elections. The CPI(M) has one member in the assembly, while the AJP and APHLC have none.
The AIUDF secured 16 seats in the last elections, and Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi won the party’s lone seat in the House. He, however, contested as an Independent candidate.
Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of these parties.
ASOM GANA PARISHAD (AGP): STRENGTH: The greatest strength of the AGP is that it is a part of the NDA and has three members in the state cabinet. It is likely to ride forward in its quest for more seats on the back of the ruling BJP. The party whose core pitch is regionalism highlights this in most polls to sway the dominant Assamese electorate towards it.
WEAKNESS: Infighting within the party is a major cause for worry, with several senior members expressing resentment that only a select few found a place in the cabinet and one person has been repeatedly elected to the Rajya Sabha while others are denied a chance.
The popularity base of the party, which ruled the state twice, has declined over the years, and its representation in the state assembly has dipped from 14 in the 2016 assembly polls to nine in 2021.
The party, which first came to power in 1985, soon after signing the Assam Accord, riding high on the anti-foreigner agitation wave, has recently been accused of wooing MLAs from the AIUDF, comprising mostly members of Bengali-speaking Muslim immigrant descent.
OPPORTUNITY: The AGP’s opportunity will mostly lie in its alliance with the ruling BJP and in highlighting the achievements of the outgoing government where three of its members are ministers.
THREAT: The threat to the party comes from its own disgruntled members and the fact that it has veered far from its regional character.
BODOLAND PEOPLE’S FRONT (BPF): STRENGTH: The BPF’s primary strength is its recent win in last year’s Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) polls. The party will capitalise on this in the upcoming polls and will try to win the 15 seats in the region comprising the districts of Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa, Udalguri and Tamulpur.
The party was a part of the NDA in the 2016 assembly polls and had contested in 13 seats, winning 12, but shifted to the opposition ‘Mahajot’ alliance, barely managing to secure only three seats in 2016. Returning to the NDA fold after the BTC polls last year and seat arrangements with partners will help the BPF to increase its tally in the upcoming polls.
WEAKNESS: The BPF will face major opposition from the United Peoples’ Party Liberal (UPPL), also an NDA ally, with its leaders stating that they would most likely contest all 15 seats. Both parties have their base in tribal Bodo communities.
OPPORTUNITY: The BPF will take the opportunity of its win in the council polls and try to surge ahead of its opponents, and will also attempt to consolidate the dominant Bodo votes in its favour.
THREAT: The BPF faces threats from the UPPL, who will attempt to wean away the tribal voters, and the non-Bodo electorate, leading to division of votes in the constituencies under BTR.
AIUDF: STRENGTH: The AIUDF, as a part of the ‘Mahajot’, had won 16 assembly seats in the 2021 polls, emerging as a prominent opposition party after the Congress. It will strive to retain the position in the Muslim-majority seats. The party’s strength lies in its base in the constituencies with a predominant electorate from the Bengali-speaking migrant community.
WEAKNESS: AIUDF is now not a part of any alliance and its popularity has waned considerably as evident in the Lok Sabha polls when its party president Badruddin Ajmal lost Dhubri seat to Congress’ Rakibul Hussain by over 10 lakh votes.
OPPORTUNITY: AIUDF will strive to take advantage of the recent desertions from the Congress, which too has a vote bank of Bengali Muslims, and bring a section of erstwhile loyalists back to its fold.
THREAT: AIUDF has its share of disgruntled members with some of its legislators set to join the AGP, and there has been disenchantment among its followers who feel the party failed to address their issues.
RAIJOR DAL: STRENGTH: The strength of the Raijor Dal is the support at the grassroots level in certain constituencies of Upper Assam. Its president Akhil Gogoi had won Sivasagar seat as an Independent candidate in the last assembly polls while still in jail due to his alleged involvement in the violence during protests against the CAA in December 2019.
WEAKNESS: The failure of seat arrangements with the Congress will be a threat, with possible division of votes, which might go in favour of the BJP.
OPPORTUNITY: The party can capitalise on the defection of senior Congress members in Upper Assam seats, and its organisational base may also help it to some extent.
THREAT: The lack of experience in electoral politics and the failure of seat arrangements with opposition parties, particularly the Congress, may work to its advantage. PTI DG NN ACD
This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.