scorecardresearch
Friday, November 8, 2024
Support Our Journalism
HomeHealthUP sees active Covid cases shrink by half but deaths nearly double...

UP sees active Covid cases shrink by half but deaths nearly double since September

Uttar Pradesh govt data has thrown up the curious anomaly, which experts say indicates that cases aren't being detected early enough.

Follow Us :
Text Size:

New Delhi: Uttar Pradesh, one of India’s high burden Covid-19 states with the lowest test positivity rate, has seen a significant decline in its active cases but the number of deaths have nearly doubled.

ThePrint analysed government data between 1 September and 20 October to find that active cases had decreased by almost half — to 30,416 on 20 October from 55,538 on 1 September.

However, in the same period, the number of deaths almost doubled to 6,714 from 3,542.

According to experts ThePrint spoke to, the trend indicates that infections are not being caught early enough and that testing data needs to be more robust and detailed.

However, D.S. Negi, director general, medical and health, said that the focus should remain on the large number of recoveries in the state rather than deaths.

“Yes, it’s true that the danger of Covid is not yet over, but an increase in recovery rate and decline in active cases are positive signs for us,” he told ThePrint.

As of Thursday, UP recorded a total of 4,61,475 cases with 6,755 deaths and 4,25,356 recoveries. It ranks fifth among the high burden states, after Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. According to covidtoday.in, a crowd-sourced website tracking the Covid-19 trajectory in India, UP has the fourth lowest test positivity rate (3.45 as of 21 October) in the country.

Health ministry data shows that UP was among the 10 states and Union Territories that accounted for 81 per cent of deaths in the country in the past 24 hours.


Also read: India could have bigger Covid peak next month if mask, social distancing rules aren’t followed


Active cases slide, deaths on the rise

According to the health bulletins released by the UP government, active cases in the state steadily decreased between 1 September and 20 October, falling to 6.6 per cent from 23.5 per cent.

On 1 September, 23.5 per cent (55,538 cases) were active. On 15 September, this decreased to 20.7 per cent (67,335 cases). By 1 October, this value reduced to 12.49 per cent (50,378 cases), settling at 6.6 per cent (30,416 cases) on 20 October.

Conversely, the number of deaths steadily increased to 6,714 deaths on 20 October from 3,542 deaths on 1 September. The death rate in this period marginally dipped to 1.4 per cent from 1.5 per cent.

Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint
Graphic by Ramandeep Kaur | ThePrint

Also read: India’s R value continues downward trend to settle at 0.90 this week, Delhi goes above 1


Is the increase in deaths a red flag?

Negi told ThePrint that the rising number of deaths was not a cause for concern.

“Deaths are increasing due to various reasons. In many cases, people remain in home isolation and don’t report that they have Covid. Only when they get critical, they seek treatment, and by that time it becomes too late,” said Negi.

“Secondly, in private hospitals, when patients become critical, they are sent to government colleges and hospitals in critical condition and then it becomes difficult to save them. We have now formed a fact-finding committee to look into the increasing deaths,” he added.

Negi said the focus, instead, should be on the high recovery rate. “Our recovery rate is above 90 per cent. So I don’t agree that an increase in death cases is a big red signal for us… Increases in recovery rate and decline in active cases are positive signs. Most of the death cases happened due to co-morbid conditions,” he said.

Experts, though, say that even if infections are being reported late, it doesn’t reflect in the active caseload given that the number has been decreasing.

“It’s counterintuitive to say that active cases are decreasing but deaths are increasing. Even if infections are being reported late, they are being reported and should add to the caseload. Decreasing caseload should result in decreasing mortality over a period of time,” said Dr Rijo M. John, health economist and consultant at World Health Organization.

According to Dr Anant Bhan, who researches on global health and bioethics, the rising deaths may be due to the fact that infections are not being reported on time. “Lot of cases are being reported late, which means treatment is coming late and then it gets difficult to save the person.”

Dr John added that the high mortality rate could also reflect on the testing strategy.

“Thirteen per cent of all tests done in the country is done by UP. But the state doesn’t give segregated data of different types of tests, nor do we have information on the positivity rates of each type of tests that they do. UP may be relying on rapid antigen testing which has low test positivity rate and yields false negatives in comparison to the RT-PCR tests. Data transparency is essential in this case,” he said.

(With inputs from Prashant Shrivastava)


Also read: India’s active cases fall below 7 lakh for first time in 2 months, positivity rate at 3.7%


 

Subscribe to our channels on YouTube, Telegram & WhatsApp

Support Our Journalism

India needs fair, non-hyphenated and questioning journalism, packed with on-ground reporting. ThePrint – with exceptional reporters, columnists and editors – is doing just that.

Sustaining this needs support from wonderful readers like you.

Whether you live in India or overseas, you can take a paid subscription by clicking here.

Support Our Journalism

4 COMMENTS

  1. This is very very bad reporting. Total active cases can increase or decrease but total deaths will always increase! If you look at daily active cases and daily deaths, you will see that deaths are decreasing day by day.

  2. I can’t understand whether you are ignorant or you deliberately misinterpret the data. Please visit covid19india.org and it is easy to see there that in UP the peak of new confirmed cases came at around 15th September followed very soon by the peak of daily deaths around 17 September. Ever since there is a consistent decrease in new confirmed cases as well as daily deaths. This can also be seen from your data as well, of course if you want to see it. From 15 September to 1 October there were about 1200 deaths. But from 1st to 20October i,e. in next 20 days (NOT 15) there are less than 1000 deaths. Is this the unbiased journalism that you guys talk about??

  3. TS Darbari – The battle against COVID is not easy. It has claimed a lot of lives and ruined numerous families. Its impact on the economy is going to last long. However, we all hope for the best and pray that the negative expectations and claims do not turn into true. Dr. Harshvardhan has rightly said that the next few months are extremely crucial for India. We must follow the instructions of doctors and support the government. Mr. TS Darbari is a top management professional, with several years of rich & diversified experience in Corporate Strategy, New Business Development, Sales & Marketing, Commercial Operations, Project Management, Financial Management and Strategic Alliances. #TS_Darbari #Ts_Darbari_Blog #TS_Darbari_News #Ts_Darbari_Views #Ts_Darbari_Blogger #TS_Darbari_Comments #Ts_Darbari_Opinion #About_TS_Darbari #TS_Darbari_Articles #Politics #Views #Comments

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular