New Delhi: India has learned two ‘lessons’ from Russia, at least according to historian Stephen Kotkin. The moral squalor of communism and economic subservience to China.
On a wintery evening with multiple talks occurring across New Delhi, from China to Sri Lanka, a packed audience at the India International Centre turned up to listen to Kotkin, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. They sought to better understand Russia and its actions today including the war with Ukraine. The event, organised by the Centre for Police Research (CPR), was moderated by political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta.
Kotkin did not mince his words.
“No country has done more for India than Russia. Russia showed India the profound moral squalor of communism. That is the lesson taught by the Soviet Union till date,” he declared at the start of his lecture.
“The second lesson Russia has given you [India] is what it means to be a vassal of China. We are not done understanding the implications of that…Russia is helping you understand what a vassal to China could potentially look like.”
The aspirations of the Russian elite and the failure of the state machinery to meet their lofty goals have, to a large extent, dictated Moscow’s actions. For more than three centuries, tsars, dictators, and presidents have used coercive power to achieve their ends.
According to the professor (emeritus), roughly 50 million people from a population of 170 million starved and survived Joseph Stalin’s bid to collectivise the country through force from 1928 onward. Another five to seven million people perished due to the industrialised famines, seen most vividly in Ukraine and remembered as the Holodomor today.
According to Kotkin, all of Russia’s leaders—from Peter I (1672-1725), who became the Emperor of Russia in 1721, to Vladimir Putin—have used coercive powers.
“There is a pattern. Russia has aspirations to be a power of the first rank. It is an abiding aspiration of its elite. The capacity of Russia does not often match its aspiration.”
Kotkin’s forceful knowledge of the subject enthralled the audience, especially with his humour mixed in. However, he did face pushback from one member seated in the hall—a Russian diplomat.
“Russia is an energy superpower. It is the fourth largest country in the world in terms of purchasing power parity, behind only China, the US, and India. It has a per capita income of $40,000 a year,” said the diplomat during the audience interaction.
“Russia does not seem to be in a dire situation as described by the professor.”
Kotkin defended the Russian diplomat’s “right to respond”. His answer—it’s hard to trust the statistics of the Russian government—left much to be desired.
Russia’s choices make it weaker
Through the talk, Kotkin kept returning to what he called a pattern of coercive action by Russian rulers to bridge the gap between the aspirations of the elite and the country’s capacity.
“The irony is that it does not close the gap with the West. Instead of Russia achieving its aspirations, there is a slide. Russian power is undermined by its very attempt to make it stronger,” said Kotkin.
However, his answer to Russia’s aspirational conundrum was to offer two options. The first is a transformation of society and systems similar to that in France: venerating monarchical traditions within a democratic republic while taking pride in its own culture. According to Kotkin, this is the ideal solution. However, the transformation of France happened across multiple revolutions starting in 1789, before evolving into its current iteration.
The second option is the one Russia had in the 1990s: becoming a junior partner of the US to boost its own economy, in a manner similar to Japan in the 20th century.
“Japan decided in the late 19th century to adapt Western norms while protecting its own culture… It fought the Second World War against the US, and then made a choice to use America’s power for its own purposes. It grew to become the second largest economy in the world,” Kotkin pointed out.
The reliance on the US seemed to be a common theme throughout the lecture. The professor highlighted how China used the US’ economic heft to become a major power in its own right.
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Indian power is here
Toward the end of the lecture, Kotkin pivoted to India, but once again raised the question of how New Delhi will look to use America’s power in its own growth trajectory.
“We need a better vocabulary than the rise of India because it makes us [the US] look stupider. Nobody plays a worse strong hand than the Americans…Indian power is here and it is growing and growing,” he said.
The professor added that there are two questions that are still unanswered when it comes to India’s own position of power.
Perhaps the Chinese have the answer.
“What are you going to do with American power? The Chinese, they used it for the largest economic boom seen through the last decades. India does not have an idea yet of how to use American power. What are you going to do with Chinese power as well?”
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)