New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) retained its forecast of an “above normal” southwest monsoon this season, with conditions remaining favourable for its onset over Kerala in the next five days. However, this respite is expected to reach most regions only after enduring intense heatwave conditions in June.
In its second phase of the monsoon forecast released Monday, the IMD said that quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country is expected to be 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/- 4 percent.
The long-period average is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a period —month or season— averaged over an extended duration, typically spanning 30 to 50 years.
“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) is likely to be above normal over central India and southern Peninsula, normal over northwest India (92-108 percent of LPA) and below normal over northeast India (less than 94 percent of LPA),” IMD director general M. Mohapatra said Monday.
He added that the conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to progress in Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, some parts of the Bay of Bengal, and northeast India in the next five days.
June and July are considered core monsoon zones due to their favourable conditions for sowing Kharif crops. This makes monsoon forecasts crucial.
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Heatwave in June
The MeT department said that in June, above-normal temperatures are expected over most parts of India, except for some parts of the southern Peninsula where below-normal temperatures are expected.
Above-normal heatwave days are also likely to be recorded in parts of northwest and central India.
“Strong El Nino conditions observed over equatorial Pacific at the beginning of the year have weakened rapidly into weak El Nino conditions and currently transitioning into El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions,” the IMD forecast said, explaining the reasons for high heatwave conditions in May.
“The latest climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of monsoon season, and La-Nina conditions are likely to develop by the later part of the season,” the IMD said.
El Niño and La Niña are two phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The El Niño phase is marked by warmer temperatures, while La Niña refers to a cooling period. The current extreme heat recordings globally are attributed to the ongoing El-Nino conditions. According to climate scientists, these are expected to abate by August-September.
(Edited by Richa Mishra)
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