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Healing ozone may recover to 1980s level in 25 years, but monitoring still critical—WMO report

Ozone levels in 2024 have been highest since 2020. Ozone filters out UV radiation which is responsible for higher prevalence of skin cancer and cataracts.

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New Delhi: The ozone layer over the Earth is set to return to 1980s level by 2050, according to a World Meteorological Organization bulletin released on the occasion of World Ozone Day Tuesday. The report commemorates 40 years of the Vienna Convention, which first recognised that loss of the ozone layer in the stratosphere is a cause of global concern.

Over the past three years, the WMO has released an annual Ozone and UV Bulletin which tracks the progress of the ozone layer hole recovery, and also contains information about future trends and the threat from extreme weather events, etc. The 16 September report was the third edition of the bulletin. It had information about how the observed ozone levels in 2024 have been the highest since 2020.

“The Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol became a landmark of multilateral success. Today, the ozone layer is healing. This achievement reminds us that when nations heed the warnings of science, progress is possible,” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a press release.

According to the WMO Bulletin, though, the reason why the mean ozone levels in 2024 were higher even compared to the 2003-2022 period average is because of certain atmospheric reasons.

Deviation of recent annual mean total ozone columns from the geographic long-term average distribution. | wmo.int
Deviation of recent annual mean total ozone columns from the geographic long-term average distribution. | wmo.int

Factors like the equatorial winds oscillation, strong El Niño conditions, and high solar activity all led to a much higher buildup of ozone in the polar regions this year compared to previous years. When observed comparatively, the 2024 ozone layer recovery looks much stronger than it did earlier this decade.

“This recovery (of the ozone layer) is expected to continue over the coming decades, thanks to the successful ban of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol,” read the bulletin.

However, the bulletin also warned that the work is not yet finished, and even in the coming decades, it is necessary for all countries to monitor their hydrocarbons and chlorofluorocarbon emissions that could cause a threat to the recovery.

Also, Matt Tully, the Chair of the WMO Scientific Advisory Group on Ozone, said in the bulletin that the world needs to continue tracking the recovery of the ozone layer, since it fluctuates on a yearly basis.

For example, in 2023 it was observed that there was higher ozone levels in the tropics as opposed to the poles. But in 2024, this trend was reversed and we saw the poles having the highest ozone levels since 2020. This exact fluctuation is what Tully was trying to point out, to indicate that while the ozone layer is on the road to recovery, it’s not a linear path.


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 The significance of ozone  

The ozone layer has been in public discourse since the 1970s, when it was first discovered that there was an overall depletion of the level of ozone in the atmosphere, and especially a hole over the Antarctic ozone layer.

Since this layer of ozone gas in the atmosphere protects people from skin cancer, cataract, and damage to biodiversity and other ecosystem changes, it was necessary to act against the depletion. In 1985, the Vienna Convention was called where all 198 members of the United Nations agreed to act against the chlorofluorocarbons that caused the ozone layer to deplete.

Then followed the Montreal Protocol of 1987, which sought to phase out the production of these substances, which are found in refrigerators, ACs, and even hairspray. Now, the Montreal Protocol and its later amendments have led to a 99 percent reduction in the consumption and production of these substances that deplete the ozone layer.

“Forty years ago, nations came together to take the first step in protecting the ozone layer — guided by science, united in action,” said Guterres in the press release.

(Edited by Ajeet Tiwari)


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