New Delhi: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a sweeping victory in Bihar, early exit polls predicted Tuesday, with a strong showing by the Janata Dal (United) likely to help the ruling coalition deny the Mahagathbandhan a shot at power.
If the projections hold, Chief Minister and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar, written off by many and battling perceptions of poor health, appears poised to take the oath of office a tenth time.
The INDIA bloc, made up of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, CPI(ML-L) and a handful of smaller parties, may struggle to reach the three-digit mark, while Prashant Kishor’s upstart Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which became a major talking point during the campaign, is expected to draw a blank, multiple pollsters said. A number of other pollsters, including Axis My India, and Cvoter are yet to declare their predictions.
Five years ago, exit polls had tilted toward the Opposition, with several predicting that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav would end Kumar’s two-decade reign. In the end, though, Yadav fell just short, even as the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats in the 243-member Assembly.
Some exit polls now suggest the Opposition may win even fewer seats than what the RJD alone secured in 2020, forecasting a landslide for the NDA, which includes the JD(U), BJP, LJP (Ram Vilas) and a few smaller outfits.
Exit poll agency Matrize predicted the NDA will win 147 to 167 seats, while People’s Insight put the tally at 133 to 148. Another agency, People’s Pulse, forecast 133 to 159 seats for the ruling alliance—well above the halfway mark of 122. Dainik Bhaskar also placed the NDA much ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, predicting 145-160 seats for it.
The Opposition’s campaign began with momentum, led by Lok Sabha Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, who embarked on a fortnight-long yatra against “vote chori”, joined by Tejashwi Yadav. But the drive fizzled out once Gandhi left for a trip to South America.
The campaign’s theme, too, did not resonate with many voters, who dismissed it as a non-issue. On the ground, there was no perceptive anger against Kumar, despite him being at the helm for two decades, while the narrative of “Jungle Raj” continued to haunt the RJD.
By the time Gandhi returned, polling was around the corner, and tensions within the grand alliance over seat-sharing differences had frayed relations among partners. In contrast, the NDA’s campaign soared once Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a blitz of public meetings across the length and breadth of Bihar.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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