By Tom Wilson
LONDON (Reuters) – China’s runaway markets rally stumbled on Wednesday, with stocks falling and commodities struggling to find a footing as investors tempered hopes for a robust Chinese economic recovery, keeping pressure on shares globally.
Benchmark share indexes in China notched up their biggest daily losses since the COVID-19 pandemic began, with Shanghai stocks and the blue-chip gauge closing down over 6% and 7% respectively, snapping a 10-day winning streak.
China’s surging markets turned suddenly fragile on Tuesday, with stocks paring gains and oil and metals prices falling, when a news conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission yielded no major new stimulus details.
The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, was flat.
Wall Street, meanwhile, was set to open slightly down, as investors awaited the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting for insight into the interest-rate path.
S&P and Nasdaq futures gauges were both down about 0.2% at 1047 GMT. U.S. indexes had closed higher on Tuesday, with tech stocks leading the gains.
Investor attention will now turn to a news conference by China’s finance ministry scheduled for Saturday, which will detail plans on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy, signalling more forceful policies to revive growth.
Markets are looking for a spending package between 2 trillion and 10 trillion yuan ($280 billion to $1.4 trillion).
Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, said support needed to top previous commitments and boost GDP by about 2 percentage points to be helpful.
Still, other market players said there were some reasons for optimism.
“If you take the whole picture, you still see a trend, which is domestic stocks are faring a bit better – an indication for foreign investors that the stimulus is good news for China’s economy,” said Alexandre Marquis, senior portfolio manager at asset manager Unigestion.
The uncertain mood spilled into European trading, with the continent’s main stocks index squeezing out gains of 0.2%.
The utilities, healthcare and real estate sectors, all considered as a safer bet during times of uncertainty, were in demand.
Commodities, the fate of which are tied to China’s economy, were also under pressure.
Dalian iron ore and Shanghai copper posted losses, while Brent crude futures, which fell 4.6% overnight, were last down 0.4% at $76.90 a barrel.
Elsewhere, Japan’s Nikkei rose 1%. Shares in Seven & I Holdings – the owner of 7-Eleven convenience stores – added 4.7% after a report that Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard would raise its buyout offer.
Such a deal would be the largest overseas buyout of a Japanese firm.
FED MINUTES
Traders have so far regarded China’s stocks slide as an overdue pullback after a hefty 25% surge in the previous six sessions.
Nearly all sectors fell in China. Property and tourism were particularly beaten-down – a sign of doubts that state support would be large and swift enough to turn around consumers’ confidence.
“We think markets can still re-rate up from here, but policymakers will need to start showing their cards or investors will lose patience over how the broader domestic economy, especially consumption, can recover,” said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie Capital.
The direction of U.S. interest rate cuts was also in focus, investors said.
Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting – where U.S. rates were cut 50 bps – are due later on Wednesday.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have been pared back following strong labour market data last week, lifting bond yields and the dollar.
That backdrop saw a 0.9% slide for the New Zealand dollar in the Asia session, with the kiwi falling to a seven-week low after the central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points and left the door open to more.
The dollar was last up 0.3% against the Japanese yen at 148.550 yen, and at $1.096 per euro.
($1 = 7.0560 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London; additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Shri Navaratnam; Alison Williams and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
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