New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “claim of having dramatically enhanced India standing (sic) in the world is a mirage” — this was the conclusion of a new report compiled by two academics and published against the backdrop of a heated general election.
What prompted the authors to compile this report? Dr Subir Sinha, who served as principal advisor to both authors, told ThePrint that the “main motivation was to test empirically one of the main arguments made in support of the PM, which is that he is thought of highly worldwide and he increased and enhanced India’s standing in the world”.
“The main takeaway is that the survey shows this not to be the case and that even among the diaspora, a majority sees events back home with alarm,” said Sinha, currently associated with the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies.
The report — published under the name ‘The Modi Mirage? Illusions and Reality of India’s Global Standing and Reputation’ — called for careful reconsideration and scrutiny of a seemingly marked improvement in India’s geopolitical standing under the Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in power since 2014.
It went on to say that “India’s level of domestic backsliding and repression may account for both the downturn in India’s international reputation, and the mirage about it domestically”.
Asked to comment on the claims made in the report, the spokesperson for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told ThePrint that he had “not seen” it.
Drawing largely from the synthesis of polls by reputable international polling institutions like PEW, Carnegie and YouGov, the report also took into account fresh field research conducted by GlobeScan from 29 March to 8 April 2024 and commissioned by Friends of Democracy. This research, according to the listed methodology, comprised five-minute online surveys of approximately 1,000 adults each in France, the UK, and the US.
In an email response to a question about what prompted him to take up this project, Professor Irfan Nooruddin from Georgetown University in the US, one of the authors of the report, told ThePrint, “The survey was motivated by a desire to understand what impact, if any, the recent spate of negative stories about India that are widespread in global media (e.g., assassination plots in Canada and US; spy ring in Australia; concerns about democratic backsliding especially after CM Kejriwal’s arrest; rise of communal rhetoric in campaigns) was having on public opinion about India.”
He added, “This seemed especially pertinent after the efforts of the government, especially during G20 in 2023, to represent India as a responsible world actor, as well as the efforts of the ruling party to claim that PM Modi deserves credit for India’s global rise.”
ThePrint also reached Dr Ritumbra Manuvie from Groningen University in The Netherlands, the other author of the report, who said she would be able to respond to questions at a later date.
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‘Modi Mirage’: What are the arguments
The report puts forth three arguments: global audiences view India significantly less favourably under Modi than in the years before he came to power, Modi is neither well known nor popular overseas, and that Modi has “deceived many about his accomplishments with the help of media coercion”. The running theme is the idea of breaking the notion of appearances and accepted status quo that has been maintained as a result.
To support its first argument, the report cites findings published by the Pew Research Center in August 2023 highlighting what Indians as well as those residing in Europe, West Asia and South America think of Modi and India.
Titled “International Views of Modi and India”, the findings from 23 countries surveyed underlined a “relatively favourable view of India” with a median of 46 percent saying they had a favourable view as against a median of 34 percent with an unfavourable view.
While this was compared to how respondents in these countries viewed India in 2007 and 2015, data cited in the ‘Modi Mirage’ report to show a decline in India’s favorability traces the same from 2008, when Manmohan Singh was Prime Minister.
It also does not depict the nature of the decline post-2014 or indicate whether it became starker after Modi assumed office.
Asked about this aspect, Professor Nooruddin told ThePrint that the infographics used in the report are “reliant on the years in which the surveys were conducted”.
The second argument cites data from YouGov polling conducted in the US and the UK in March 2024 which suggests that Modi is not as well known as some world leaders including Brazil’s former president Michel Temer or former Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte, or not as popular as Chinese President Xi Jinping or Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The third argument relies on data from the World Bank to support the assertion that Modi “deceived many about his accomplishments with the help of media coercion”.
It goes on to say that while India has made significant strides towards reducing poverty and bridging inequality over the past two decades, the notion that the country saw “dramatic changes in its economic fortunes under Modi bears little scrutiny”.
In addition to these arguments, the report cites India being classified as an “elected autocracy” by V-Dem and “partially free” by Freedom House, besides it falling 11 places to the 161st position on the Press Freedom Index, to add more weight to its arguments.
“If Modi has not in fact dramatically enhanced India’s standing and respect on the world stage, what accounts for the widespread perception that he has? What creates the mirage? The answer may be a combination of press censorship and coercion, and increasing levels of disinformation pushed out across social media,” reads a section titled ‘Why the Mirage?’.
It goes on to add: “Insiders report a close direction of the narratives of leading media outlets from the Prime Minister’s office, with special attention paid to stories that portray Modi’s role in international affairs. This direction may for a time have influenced global coverage as well, as media houses often took cues from their Delhi correspondents, who were influenced by the national media environment.”
The report also presents findings of a poll conducted by GlobeScan, to suggest that close to nine-tenths of respondents found protection of human rights a necessary prerequisite for strengthening foreign ties, supporting industrial and other commercial investments, and expressed concern over the alleged involvement of the Indian government in assassination plots carried out on foreign soil.
It also found that three in four respondents expressed concern over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) — which they believed would make it harder for Muslims to become Indian citizens.
“Given that the three countries surveyed — France, UK, and US — are all democracies, it is likely that their governments will wish to be seen as heeding such sentiments. This suggests that the Indian government is likely to face increased scrutiny going forward on issues of democracy and human rights, especially as India’s role on the world stage grows. The two cannot be separated,” Professor Nooruddin told ThePrint.
Towards the end, there is an acceptance that India is becoming politically and economically influential and prominent on the global stage regardless, but having a strong democratic foundation and principles on which to base policy, would result in a faster pace of growth.
According to Professor Nooruddin, the main takeaway of the report is that “public opinion about India in the West remains positive: majorities of citizens polled want their governments to work with India, but they also are increasingly concerned about the state of democracy and minority rights in India, and are inclined to think that future involvement with India should be conditional on India’s performance on these dimensions”.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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This already looks like a shoddy & a biased report. It appears a purposeful attempt to malign Modi’s image, Modi is revered in India because of the work he has put in before anything else like instilling a sense of Nationalism & Hindutva.
The audience where this survey is conducted is already suspect as to the information (misinformation) available to the individuals.
Firstly, the thought & stories of Lynchings of the Muslims in India by the Cow vigilantism is a thing of the past ( stray incidences given much credence by the opposition) & the Govt of the day & the party BJP has totally stopped Cow vigilantism & in fact encouraged Meat processing business that in turn has vastly enhanced the Meat export. ( figs are available in the public domain)
Secondly, the stories of assassination attempts by (alleged) Indian Agencies on Foreign soil in the US & Canada are not proven yet ( no evidence, only titbits provided) The individuals in question ( on whom the assassination was allegedly attempted) are first rate criminals/terrorists escaped from the Indian shores & law enforcement agencies & against whom there are Interpole Red Corner notices issued.
Thirdly,, what business it is of anyone where Mr Kejriwal is arrested ? The arrest is due to criminal corruption charges where there is enough evidence. Is Mr Kejriwal a foreign national ? Then how it concerns the candidates of the surveys ??
All these points mentioned in this report only gives it a colour of a ” Narrative Building” excercise & that too a futile one. The powers, at whose behest these surveys were conducted & the report were written have clearly wasted their efforts & money.
There is no dearth of Modi haters, they have made a career loathing Modi since 2002. If they have to burn the country down in order to express their hatred for Modi, the ecosystem is more than willing to do the same.