New Delhi: The first meeting of the high-profile 2+2 ministers between India and the US under the Biden administration is set to be held in Washington next week, and the expectation is it is unlikely to be a smooth affair like its previous versions.
The meeting between the foreign and defence ministers of the two countries, scheduled for 11 April, is being held under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine war, and New Delhi and Washington are not entirely on the same page in their response to Moscow’s aggression.
While negotiating bilateral issues is expected to be easy, differences over Russia could lead to some awkwardness at the table, diplomatic sources and analysts told ThePrint.
So far, there have been three rounds of the annual 2+2 talks between New Delhi and Washington. The last round was held in October 2020 in New Delhi, under the erstwhile Trump administration.
According to sources, India and the US made several attempts to hold the 2+2 talks after Biden officially entered the White House about thirteen months back.
However, with the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, domestic Covid management, and intense strategic tussle with China, and now Russia, keeping the US preoccupied, the talks kept getting delayed.
Delay in the appointment of a new US ambassador to India also pushed back the 2+2 ministerial talks — a key strategic dialogue between India and US — by more than a year.
The Biden administration had nominated Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti’s name for the post of US ambassador to India, but it seems he will not be able to obtain enough votes in the Senate as the Republicans have raised protest in the wake of a sexual misconduct case against one of his former aides.
The 2+2 meeting will take place in Washington between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh with their American counterparts, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.
The talks are finally happening at a time when “rigid and wide differences” have emerged between both the countries over the Ukraine war, with the US continuing to push New Delhi to not just call out Russia, but to also stop doing business with Moscow, sources said.
According to the sources, during the 2+2 talks, the Biden administration will likely try to convince India of some of the war crimes allegedly being committed by Russia in Ukraine, especially after extreme torture and violence were reported from the city of Bucha in Ukraine.
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Main talking points
During the 2+2 talks, the US is also likely to make an attempt to apprise India of how hard the economic sanctions on Moscow are going to be — making Russia completely incapable of doing business with the world, diplomatic sources told ThePrint, requesting anonymity.
India, meanwhile, will seek to secure assurances from the US under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on the purchase of S-400 missile systems from Russia.
On Tuesday, addressing yet another session at the UN Security Council on Ukraine — which took place after the alleged massacre in Bucha came to light — India’s Permanent Representative to the UN in New York, T.S. Tirumurti, called it “deeply disturbing” and once again avoided openly criticising Russia.
In the past month, India has witnessed a series of visits from European countries rushing to meet National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, in order to understand and assess India’s stance.
India has insisted on dialogue and diplomacy as the only way forward in the Russia-Ukraine war, which has entered its second month. The war is believed to have killed hundreds of civilians, while forcing over 10 million Ukrainians to live the life of refugees.
Delhi has abstained from UN votes against Russia in light of the conflict, including one on Thursday regarding a resolution that called for suspending Russia from the Human Rights Council.
Tirumurti said in an explanation that “India has abstained on the resolution with regard to suspension of the Russian Federation from the Human Rights Council adopted in the General Assembly today”. “We do so for reasons of both substance and process,” he added.
Making a rushed visit to India late last month, US Deputy NSA for International Economics Daleep Singh, warned India against enhancing business ties with Moscow, be it about purchasing arms or discounted Russian oil.
“What Daleep did make clear to his counterparts during this visit was that we don’t believe it’s in India’s interest to accelerate or increase imports of Russian energy and other commodities,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said earlier this week.
The White House also assured India of help in lessening its dependence on the Kremlin.
According to the sources, the Biden administration has made it clear to India that it is against any kind of trading arrangement between India and Russia, be it the traditional rupee-rouble mechanism or trading in national currencies.
Doing business with each other in the two countries’ national currencies is something that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov strongly advocated during his visit to India on 1 April.
‘Easy discussions and difficult discussions’
Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Center said there “will be easy discussions and difficult discussions” at this 2+2.
“The easy discussions will focus on building out the security partnership and in particular focusing on how to implement the foundational defence agreements that have been concluded over the last few years. The difficult discussions will be over Russia,” he added.
“I imagine the Americans will try to convince their Indian counterparts that Russia’s utility as a security partner is rapidly diminishing,” Kugelman said. “It will be a sanctioned, cash-strapped state with less capacity to manufacture and supply arms, and it certainly won’t do anything to support India when it next faces provocations from China. The Indians may not respond well to this argument, which may produce an awkward moment.”
Kugelman also added that the US side may suggest it could use CAATSA as a “leverage”, and make it clear that a waiver is “much more likely” if India shows an intention to significantly cut back on its arms imports from Russia, and at a higher rate than has already been happening.
Richard M. Rossow, Wadhwani Chair in US-India Policy Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the “US-India 2+2 has been a long time coming”.
“It’s nearly 1.5 years into the Biden administration before our most important bilateral dialogue takes place. The two sides must have three objectives in mind: Restart important, yet dormant, areas of cooperation. Second, find new-probably modest-areas of cooperation. And third, avoid a crisis by finding common ground on Russia and CAATSA sanctions,” he added.
“I have modest faith that the first two boxes will be checked. But the third — avoiding an escalating crisis — is much harder,” Rossow said.
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Jaishankar slams Western critics on Ukraine
Last week, addressing a seminar with UK Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss, who sought to offer another “diplomatic push” to India to call out Russia, Jaishankar said a “campaign” of sorts is being run against New Delhi to change its stance on Moscow.
He also underlined that the European Union itself is still buying oil and gas from Russia.
Visiting India last month, Germany NSA Jens Plötner said Berlin will be phasing out its purchases of oil and gas from Russia by the end of 2022, which was also echoed by Truss.
Addressing Parliament Tuesday about India’s stand on the ongoing Ukraine war, Jaishankar said, “What is India advocating in Ukraine? We are, first and foremost, strongly against the conflict. We believe that no solution can be arrived at by shedding blood and at the cost of innocent lives. In this day and age, dialogue and diplomacy are the right answers to any disputes.”
“If India has chosen a side, it is the side of peace and it is for an immediate end to violence. This is our principled stand and it has consistently guided our position in international forums and debates including in the United Nations,” he added.
On the issue of Bucha killings, reportedly carried out by the Russian forces, the External Affairs Minister said, “We strongly condemn the killings that have taken place there. This is an extremely serious matter and we support the call for an independent investigation.”
Announcing the 2+2 talks Thursday, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said both sides will discuss issues related to foreign policy, defence and security.
During the visit, he added, Jaishankar will also be meeting his counterpart Antony J. Blinken separately, besides other senior members of the Biden administration.
On being asked about the remarks by US Deputy NSA Singh, he said, “We have an established economic relationship with Russia. Our focus is on stabilising this established economic relationship in the current circumstances and we’ve been open about it… Energy flows to Europe are continuing, fertiliser purchases have been insulated… We have a strong, robust, diversified relationship with the US and the 2+2 is happening in that context.”
Arun K. Singh, former Indian ambassador to the US, said “while issues related to Ukraine will no doubt be discussed in the 2+2 meeting, there are other key issues that both sides would also profitably focus on”.
“There is the continuing challenge from China, and there needs to be a better understanding of all of the lessons that China is absorbing for its own strategies and actions, based on Russian action and response from the US and its allies and partners,” Singh added.
“Again, this meeting is also an opportunity for exploring additional ways to enhance defence cooperation to mutual benefit. This would be an effective counter to the negative voices, particularly in the US,” he said.
US likely to push for more defence deals, reduction in tariffs
With the US imposing unprecedented sanctions on Moscow, it will try to hard-sell its weaponry to India, including Boeing’s F/A-18 Block III Super Hornet for the Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers, and also the procurement of 30 armed MQ9B drones from General Atomics.
The US, sources said, intends to transform India’s defence platform from Russian to American, even as Washington continues to consider India as its “major defence partner”.
On two-way trade, the US continues to push India for lowering tariffs across the board, while urging a level-playing field for American firms doing business in India.
Rossow added: “I would like to see the announcement of new cooperation in the Indian Ocean. A re-launch of our tri-service ‘Exercise Tiger Triumph’. And a pathway to avoiding CAATSA sanctions against India.
“There are also a handful of pending US defence sales to India — armed drones, and carrier-launched fighter planes. Securing an agreement on either/both would add much-needed ballast to the relationship,” he said.
In an earlier interview to ThePrint, Atul Keshap, former US diplomat and president of the US-India Business Council (USIBC), said that the US and India should indemnify their economic ties from the growing geopolitical risks.
(Edited by Poulomi Banerjee)
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