New Delhi: The world’s third-largest democracy, Indonesia, is going to polls on 14 February 2024, when 204 million people will be eligible to vote for the country’s next president. The popular incumbent Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) is ineligible to run due to being term-limited.
The upcoming polls hold significance for India as decisions regarding the deepening of cooperation in defence or any other sector between the two nations have been on hold since the commencement of campaigning for Indonesia’s elections late last year.
For instance, decisions such as the purchase of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles — costing anywhere between $200 million to $375 million — will be taken only after the formation of the new government, as reported by ThePrint earlier.
The polls — being held for the positions of president, vice-president, parliamentarians, provincial and regional governments — are also the first unified elections in Indonesia. Indonesia is gearing up for the exchange of power for the first time in a decade given that Joko Widodo is term-limited. Indonesia won its democracy only at the end of the 20th century. The country, consisting of 17,000 islands, was led by the authoritarian president Suharto for 30 years from 1968 till 1998.
However, while the days of the military dictatorship are over, its impact remains. The leading candidate to win the polls Prabowo Subianto — also the current defence minister — is the former dictator’s son-in-law. Prabowo has been accused of kidnapping over 20 pro-democracy activists in the late 1990s, nearly a dozen of whom have never been found.
He has also been accused of serious human rights violations in East Timor (Timor-Leste) during Jakarta’s 24-year occupation of the country. Prabowo’s military unit was responsible for the killing of Timorese political leader Nicolau dos Reis Lobato in 1978. According to local media reports from 2019, Lobato’s body has still not been returned to Dili.
As per local opinion polls, Prabowo is predicted to win comfortably with over 50 percent of the votes. In Indonesia, a run-off election is held only if no candidate receives 50 percent of the votes in the first round.
Though ineligible to run, Jokowi’s presence looms large over the elections, with over 80 percent approval ratings. As president, he must remain neutral, but since his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is Prabowo’s running mate, it has led to people perceiving the ticket as having received Jokowi’s implicit seal of approval, according to Reuters.
The two other candidates in contention are the former governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan and the former governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo.
On Wednesday, Indonesians will also be voting for representatives at national, provincial, regional and city levels, according to Al Jazeera. Any Indonesian citizen 17 or older can vote, unless they are members of the police or military.
While presidential candidates require 50 percent of votes to avoid a runoff election in the first round, political parties require a total of 4 percent of votes to enter the national parliament.
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Candidates in the fray
The leading candidates are Prabowo and Gibran. Prabowo, 72, is running for president for the third time, having lost in previous elections to Jokowi.
The former military officer’s campaign has seen a noted change in tone. His previous campaigns were based on nationalistic and conservative Islamic talking points. This time around, though, his campaigns portray him as a “cute and cuddly” grandfather figure, dancing his way to victory.
Prabowo’s dance moves have found a following on social media platform TikTok, which reportedly has around 125 million users in Indonesia, second only to the US. His chosen running mate Gibran was originally ineligible to be selected given his age — 36.
In Indonesia, candidates for president or vice-president have to be above the age of 40.
However, on 16 October, 2023, the Indonesian Constitutional Court allowed Gibran’s candidature, saying that candidates who have served as elected regional leaders are exempt from the 40-year-old age requirement to run for presidential elections.
The controversial ruling was made by Chief Justice Anwar Usman, Joko Widodo’s brother-in-law. Subsequently, in November 2023, Usman was demoted from his post by an ethics panel over the ruling.
Prabowo’s promises reportedly include a $29 billion “strategic project” to distribute free lunches and milk to 78 million students and 4.4 million expecting mothers. He has also announced a plan to build three million new homes and complete the shift to the new planned capital city of Nusantara.
Meanwhile, his opponent Ganjar Pranowo has promised to provide free internet for students and micro, small and medium businesses. Ganjar is a leader from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party that backed Joko Widodo’s campaign for presidency.
The PDI-P is led by Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno. She is a former president and vice-president of Indonesia, having held the offices between 1999 and 2004.
According to media reports, Ganjar has also promised to ensure a 7 percent annual growth rate and strengthen Jakarta’s support for the Palestinian cause, while creating 17 million new jobs if elected.
The third candidate in the fray, Anies Baswedan, is running as an independent. Anies has promised to cancel Joko Widodo’s planned capital Nusantara and create 15 million new jobs. His focus has also been on ensuring incentives for renewable energy projects, strengthening Indonesia’s free trade agreements and building two million new affordable homes.
An opinion poll released by Indikator Politik Indonesia — an Indonesia-based polling agency — projects Prabowo winning 51.8 percent of the votes. Anies is projected to win 24.1 percent of the votes, while Ganjar is projected to win 19.6 percent of votes.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
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