New Delhi: Experts say New Delhi must proceed with caution and draw from its past experiences while dealing with the regime change in Bangladesh after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned following a mass rebellion that killed nearly 300 people.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar told Parliament Tuesday that India is closely monitoring the situation. Earlier in the day, he had briefed an all-party meeting in Parliament about the ongoing developments in Bangladesh.
On Monday evening, Hasina had met top Indian officials, including National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri at the Hindon Air Base near Delhi.
After Hasina resigned, the Bangladesh army announced Monday that an interim government would be formed, drawing members from opposition parties and the civil society, but not the former PM’s Awami League.
Nobel laureate and economist Muhammad Yunus is speculated to be the adviser to the caretaker government.
Yunus, who expressed his disappointment with India’s reaction to the civil unrest in Bangladesh, is unlikely to be “hostile” towards India, remarked former envoy to Bangladesh Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty.
“India cannot prevent street protests in neighbouring countries, be it Bangladesh, Nepal or Sri Lanka. But I cannot rule out that external factors had a role to play in Hasina’s exit. Pakistan and the US, who have strong links with the BNP, stand to gain from the recent crisis,” he said.
“But Yunus is unlikely to be hostile towards New Delhi,” he added.
Yunus has in the past referred to Hasina as a “dictator”. He was put on trial twice — in 2010 and 2013 — by the Awami League government. He faced a number of corruption allegations.
Former foreign secretary K. Raghunath, who served as the Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh from 1992 to 1995, said New Delhi must “keep its cool” and draw from its past experience in dealing with government changes in Bangladesh.
“India shouldn’t be rattled by the crisis in Bangladesh… Allowing Hasina safe passage into India showed we uphold loyalty to our old friends,” he told ThePrint.
ThePrint earlier reported that Hasina on Monday reached out to India seeking safe passage into its airspace, a request that was promptly accepted. Sources said her final destination is likely London, where her sister Rehana and family stay. Rehana’s daughter, Tulip Siddiq, is a member of the British Parliament for the Labor Party.
‘India hasn’t burnt bridges with BNP’
Chakravarty noted that the political crisis in Dhaka was “not new”. He served during a similar crisis in the late 2000s when a caretaker government was put in place after the term ended for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
“India has not burnt its bridges with the BNP. Their leaders regularly visit Delhi, though they rarely advertise it. We have seen such events happen in the past but some nuance will be required when dealing with the new caretaker government,” he told ThePrint.
In January, when Hasina clinched a fifth term after winning elections, experts told ThePrint that New Delhi risked putting all its eggs in one basket in the long run. The Narendra Modi government has steadfastly backed the Awami League against Western concerns over fairness in the past three elections.
According to Raghunath, India must be prepared for BNP gaining an upper hand when elections are eventually held in Bangladesh.
“Sooner or later, elections will be held in Bangladesh. India should be prepared for the pendulum to swing back to BNP. They will surely have the upper hand,” he told ThePrint.
“We’ve maintained communication and working relations with BNP since the ’90s. The need to respect each other’s national security will have to be reiterated at some point,” he added.
India must proceed with caution, according to Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow covering South Asia at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).
“India must see how the interim administration takes shape and what the political road map they are providing. The US, meanwhile, has welcomed takeover by the Bangladesh army,” she told ThePrint.
“We welcome the announcement of an interim government and urge any transition be conducted in accordance with Bangladesh’s laws,” said US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller in a press briefing Tuesday.
(Edited by Tikli Basu)
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