Congress party + sivpal Yadav will directly helping bjp
Rest Yadav votes +jaat votes aslo seving towards bjp on those seats where bsp candidate will contast the election.
Seinerio may be like this.
For some time Yogendra Ji has been saying that for the first time election will be fought on the agricultural issues but seeing his analysis here it appears surprisingly that those issues do not matter any more.
There are couple of things that Mr. Yogendara Yadav has not taken into consideration.
1. Till date SP has been contesting the elections in every seat. So there is a candidate who will be always in reach with the people. That candidate also will have his own pocket of influence irrespective of which party he belongs to. This person will not be able to get ticket because now SP is going to contest only in half the seats. So he will be contesting as a independent to show his power in that Constituency. Reason. If he does not contest people will forget his face. This happens to every party but it will be more visible here because SP is not contesting itself. They will cut the votes that will be polled to BSP by 5 to 10% at least and that will be a big blow to this alliance.
2. SP concentrates on Yadav votes. And some of the villagers of this caste will never vote for BSP considering them low in caste and feeling themselves high and vote for anyone who is against this BSP. So obviously BJP will reap benefits.
The comparison they have taken here is the bypoll win of SP. Because BSP voters will vote for SP but SP voters will hardly vote for BSP considering the caste factor.
I have a feeling that Indian voting patterns cannot be calculated arithmetically. It will require analysis of demographics of each constituency. A wave like 2014 or 2017 is different issue. But after Rajasthan and MP where we saw difference in vote share between winner and looser so narrow, a deeper analysis is needed. And winner will be who can manage election booth wise. Mayawati is seeing the delhi throne as her. It’s not surprising that she excluded congress because a strong congress will spoil her dream. She doesn’t have the vision beyond her getting the chair. However by doing that she has given a Golden opportunity to BJP to come back. A combined anti BJP forces would have decimated BJP.
The highest populated states of Dalits MP and Chattisgarh have rejected BSP and not ready to believe her anymore, split of Dalits votes is possible. So I expect scenario 1.
A good analysis. Commentators and psephologists often take it granted the all the scheduled castes votes are in the bag of Mayawati while the fact is that she commands power to transfer only 12 % votes of Jatavs which are solidly behind her. This analysis too shows that the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is down but not out.
BJP’s behavior has been so shocking in the last five years, that barring BJP’s own faithfuls for whom this party will always remain pious, for everyone else it has acquired the image of EVIL. So the SP+BSP faithfuls will be doubly faithful towards whoever their joint candidate is. The Congress will win its two seats as always, and at every other location it will cut into the BJP votes, because some moderate but thinking Hindus who were traditionally with the saffron party too might have got appalled by its recent draconian face.
So the third scenario looks more likely to me: BJP less than 20 seats (or perhaps even 12, as the author says).
Congress party + sivpal Yadav will directly helping bjp
Rest Yadav votes +jaat votes aslo seving towards bjp on those seats where bsp candidate will contast the election.
Seinerio may be like this.
For some time Yogendra Ji has been saying that for the first time election will be fought on the agricultural issues but seeing his analysis here it appears surprisingly that those issues do not matter any more.
There are couple of things that Mr. Yogendara Yadav has not taken into consideration.
1. Till date SP has been contesting the elections in every seat. So there is a candidate who will be always in reach with the people. That candidate also will have his own pocket of influence irrespective of which party he belongs to. This person will not be able to get ticket because now SP is going to contest only in half the seats. So he will be contesting as a independent to show his power in that Constituency. Reason. If he does not contest people will forget his face. This happens to every party but it will be more visible here because SP is not contesting itself. They will cut the votes that will be polled to BSP by 5 to 10% at least and that will be a big blow to this alliance.
2. SP concentrates on Yadav votes. And some of the villagers of this caste will never vote for BSP considering them low in caste and feeling themselves high and vote for anyone who is against this BSP. So obviously BJP will reap benefits.
The comparison they have taken here is the bypoll win of SP. Because BSP voters will vote for SP but SP voters will hardly vote for BSP considering the caste factor.
I have a feeling that Indian voting patterns cannot be calculated arithmetically. It will require analysis of demographics of each constituency. A wave like 2014 or 2017 is different issue. But after Rajasthan and MP where we saw difference in vote share between winner and looser so narrow, a deeper analysis is needed. And winner will be who can manage election booth wise. Mayawati is seeing the delhi throne as her. It’s not surprising that she excluded congress because a strong congress will spoil her dream. She doesn’t have the vision beyond her getting the chair. However by doing that she has given a Golden opportunity to BJP to come back. A combined anti BJP forces would have decimated BJP.
On what basis you are saying congress will get only 2 seats… for MP election voter prefer bjp & congress more..
Will we ever rise above ‘caste’ ?
Fourth scenario. Supreme court decides Ramjanmabhoomi matter before elections and all 80 seats go to one party
The highest populated states of Dalits MP and Chattisgarh have rejected BSP and not ready to believe her anymore, split of Dalits votes is possible. So I expect scenario 1.
A good analysis. Commentators and psephologists often take it granted the all the scheduled castes votes are in the bag of Mayawati while the fact is that she commands power to transfer only 12 % votes of Jatavs which are solidly behind her. This analysis too shows that the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is down but not out.
Fifty seats is a fair expectation. Yogiji is making their job easier.
BJP’s behavior has been so shocking in the last five years, that barring BJP’s own faithfuls for whom this party will always remain pious, for everyone else it has acquired the image of EVIL. So the SP+BSP faithfuls will be doubly faithful towards whoever their joint candidate is. The Congress will win its two seats as always, and at every other location it will cut into the BJP votes, because some moderate but thinking Hindus who were traditionally with the saffron party too might have got appalled by its recent draconian face.
So the third scenario looks more likely to me: BJP less than 20 seats (or perhaps even 12, as the author says).