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Viksit Bharat by 2047. Net zero country by 2070. Important, specific, clear and a vision for the long-term. But there is a big problem with such clarion calls: they are too far out in the horizon for them to be of any relevance for policymakers. The ruling party might not be in power until 2047, even if they are – the same politicians and bureaucrats are not likely to be holding positions. Also, we are all dead in the long run, aren’t we?
What is relevant for policymakers are the milestones set along the way to achieve that end goal. What are the quantitative and qualitative targets that need to be periodically measured? Where does India need to be at the end of the next five years to stay on track? How does this five-year milestone translate into targets for the different government ministries and departments?
Are these milestones and sub-targets internally communicated within the political administration? Unlikely but possible. But why not share these with the public? Is it because willingly subjecting yourself to public scrutiny and accountability is not a politically wise move? Lessons learnt from past commitments / forecasts perhaps – Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan 2019, Housing for All 2022, National Jal Jeevan Mission 2024, $5 trillion dollar economy by 2025. One could have a discussion around progress made on each of these projects / forecasts but there can be no denial of the fact that these remain unfulfilled.
Setting medium-term publicly shared goals but failing to meet them despite best efforts, should always be the preferred option versus setting a long-term vision with no measurement of progress along the way. The other problem with not keeping the governance machinery accountable is that it gradually starts to become a projection in political communication rather than a stiff target which needs to be worked towards with humility. ‘Our vision is to make India a developed nation by 2047’ is completely different from ‘We forecast India to become a developed nation by 2047’. The first one simply communicates a vision, while the latter projects a false sense of confidence without acknowledgement of the journey which will be dotted with uncertainties, challenges and very, very high execution risk of plans. And then, in order to justify the forecast, bureaucrats start believing in and telling whoever calls them to a podcast a utopian story about India’s demographic dividend, digital public infrastructure (DPI), vibrant start-up ecosystem, strong political standing and ‘Atmanirbharta’ initiatives, working beautifully together, creating magic. The problem lies in talking about these factors as ‘given successes’ rather than acknowledging these as opportunities that would continue to need effort in order to be leveraged.
What needs more attention are our weaknesses as a nation, which are never talked about as much, such as weak primary education and healthcare outcomes, substantial room for improvement in hard infrastructure, stagnating agricultural and manufacturing growth, lack of good quality jobs, low female participation in workforce, growing income inequality and weak land and labour laws, which remain challenges in setting up and running businesses. A sobering account of the current health of the Indian economy is laid out by Dr. Raghuram Rajan in this series available on YouTube: Economic Challenges for the Next Indian Government – YouTube. The analysis is backed by hard data countering prevalent narratives and should be a must-watch for every Indian citizen.
As a bureaucrat, if you start believing in the inevitability of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047, without any concrete OKRs to keep you accountable towards the target, and also given the fact that the result is likely to be known well beyond your tenure in the government, would you ever come to know if the train or in this case, the flight to becoming a developed nation, has drifted off course or even if you know it has, would you be incentivised to bring it back on track?
This is Part 1 of the article. Part 2 will be an attempt to calculate what potential milestones in a successful ‘Viksit Bharat’ journey could look using reasonable assumptions.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint