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February is an important month. Globally because of Valentine’s Day which falls on the fourteenth day and nationally because of the annual budget for the next financial year being presented by the finance minister on the first day of the month. With the first of February 2026 falling on a Sunday, it remains to be seen whether the budget presentation will adhere to tradition or be pushed back or pulled forward by a day. I am not hazarding a guess on that.
However, without much difficulty and with reasonable certainty, let me predict what you can expect to see and read from six distinct groups post the budget presentation.
First, the ruling party and its allies: A standing ovation before even reading the headlines, leave alone the fine print. Ministers and members of ruling parties will term it a historic budget. Some of them will attribute it to being aligned towards the vision of Viksit Bharat and how this brings us closer to our goals for 2047. There will be many who enthusiastically claim that this is an inclusive budget, catering to all sections of society – especially farmers, youth, women etc. It will be termed as a perfect balance of reforms and welfare.
Next, the opposition parties: A disapproving note, which they would be dying to release in advance but have to patiently wait till the budget announcement is made. Party leaders would be live on television channels terming the budget as one more step which betrays the common man. Some would classify the budget as directionless and hollow. A veteran politician would claim that this is nothing but old wine in a new bottle. Another would dramatically point out that there is zero relief for the poor and that the schemes announced are with an eye on capturing or making political inroads in states heading to elections later that year.
Third, the economists: They generally appear on such discussions with the enthusiasm of someone forced to attend the wedding of a very distant cousin. While one will praise the focus on capital expenditure the other will caution against an over reliance on it. The one praising fiscal prudence would state that the fiscal deficit path looks good. But will be quick to add the words – assuming no shocks or geopolitical shifts. Another will state that the extent of prudence may not be warranted, since the true test of the budget would be in its implementation.
Fourth, the bankers: They generally respond in a language unique to their industry – cautious optimism, which is mild approval laced with hedged caution. The CEO of a large bank would state that the budget is positive for financial stability and the CEO of a large NBFC would state that the budget is conducive to credit expansion. You can expect to read jargon heavy, benign comments for e.g. the budget contours are broadly positive, fiscal deficit trajectory is encouraging, liquidity conditions are expected to be manageable etc. A banker would comment with an air of authority that the fiscal deficit target looks feasible, which in banker speak actually means “we’ll see”.
Fifth, the trade bodies and industry associations: Overall they would classify the budget as transformative. Their response follows a four-step choreographed pattern. 1.They start with gratitude – we welcome the government’s initiatives. 2. Then slip in a wish list – but we hope for further rationalization of GST. 3. Then praise something else – the focus on MSME is commendable. 4. Finally seek more tax cuts – reducing corporate tax would have further unlocked growth. The startups will ask for further easing regulations and manufacturers will ask for more incentives. Real estate bodies will voice their hope that at least in the next year they would receive industry status.
Last but not the least confused, the citizens: It is that day of the year when many citizens become arm chair economists. Most however would be attempting to figure out the only thing that really matters – will they have to pay higher taxes or lower. They would initially form one opinion and during the course of the day be flooded with so much information and videos on this topic that they wouldn’t know whether to be happy or be resigned to their fate. Many would end the day chuckling over the surfeit of memes circulating on social media.
The ruling party will celebrate, the opposition will condemn, economists and bankers will hedge, the trade bodies will praise and pray and the citizens will plunge deeper into social media.
Every year budgets come and go. Along with it the cliched, predictable commentary would be carved in print. The Math changes, the English doesn’t.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.