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We begin cleaning up our city gutters only when the streets become knee-deep sanitary canals in which 5ft 4inch tall people miraculously manage to drown. Similarly, the Bangladesh (BD) political fiasco should have been foreseen and catered for several years back by our political observers and Int agencies. Do we always have to react to a situation ex post facto? Our politico-military strategy is remarkable in its lack of foresight and determined action to survive the future. Point being, our National Leadership should not follow policies of sundry Municipal Corporations.
A gem by a senior leader on Op Sindoor: “It is not a ceasefire. It is a pause. One that allows us to weigh what truly matters – lives, stability and the long-term consequences of escalation.”
44 years of BD, 70 yrs since the making of Pak and 4 wars with it, 40 yrs of debilating violence in Kashmir with the North East a simmering cauldron, thousands of lives lost… and here we are, still calculating the costs and consequences? If so, we are either poor at maths or do not have what it takes to resolutely act.
India must decide if it is worth bleeding from a thousand cuts promised by Pak. Pak – now further bolstered by Turkey, confident of Chinese, Malaysian and BD support – seems intent on keeping its promise. Those cuts may not hemorrhage Bharat to death but will certainly leave us anaemic. Not to mention: repeated, deeper cuts at the same spot can – over time – severe even an Elephant’s neck.
There is a genuine risk of India being encircled by inimical forces that will not respond to reason and rationality or economic pressure from India alone. (And, in this matter we are alone.)
So long as Chinese policy towards India does not change (or, more accurately we do not make the necessary effort to change it), Pak and BD will remain belligerent.
Catch 22:
Economic pressures by India will only hasten BD+Pak’s alignment closer to China. If they are economically strangled, their people will become even more restive and support their leaders in virulent anti-India policies, exponentially increasing instability in J&K and the NE.
If BD & Pak become economically stable, this will encourage them even more to flex their muscles against India.
Our historically defensive mentality and reliance on diplomatic verbiage that has proved to fail our strategic interests. BD and Pak are not known to be amenable, reasonable or rational in their approach to India.
Economic development of the NE notwithstanding, the Siliguri Corridor will remain vulnerable to a Pak+China action with DB as proxy. We can deploy a complete Corps in Siliguri Corridor supported by a few IAF squadrons, but it will remain a passive, inadequate reaction; vulnerable to effective interdiction, given missiles are now available a dime a dozen.
Considering Mr Yunus’s active interest in our North East (echoed by BD’s Gen Fazlur), plus his discussions with China around the anatomy of our curvaceous Gallus indica (aka chicken’s neck/Siliguri Corridor), Bharat should feel free to consider a couple of straight lines off the fattened Gallus domesticus (aka Bangladeshi murgi jhol).
There is a need to redraw some maps – on ground, not paper:
One – A straight line joining Balurghat (WB) to Dinhata (Assam), via Lalmonirhat. Our stringy Chicken’s neck will transmogrify into a fat Leg Piece with a lot more depth.
Two – Given Chinese ambitions in the Indian Ocean and BD’s economic crisis, a logical conclusion sees BD leasing ports to China that end up as Naval bases in the foreseeable future. To nix this possibility and also liberate our land-locked North-East, another straight line that starts at Manu Bazaar in Tripura and moves a few kms due South-West to Char Chandia on the Bay of Bengal will greatly facilitate beach outings for the people of Tripura and Mizoram.
Tough? We should have drawn those straight lines in 1971. Again, lack of foresight – just as in 1947, that led to the creation of PoK. BD today is akin to Pak in 1947. History tells us we need to bite the bullet. Now. Else, prepare to accept a Chinese Navy Carrier flotilla based in Chittagong and in due course a PAF training academy at Lalmonirhat.
India thrashing frantically in various international fora to stay afloat is akin to a distress signal to circling sharks that smell blood. We already face 2 physical fronts, cannot afford 3 physical and a few more virtual in the future. That will be a lot tougher to chew.
An easier alternative is to make amends with China on priority. It will help curb Turkey’s adventurism in South Asia and keep Pak and BD from being overly zealous. Easier, but not surer.
Heed Kabir – “Kal kare so aaj kar, aaj kare so ab.”
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