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Amid the evolving immigration landscape and looming fear of layoffs due to AI, H-1B holders in the U.S. face higher job insecurity than ever before. At the same time, anti-immigration sentiments are on the rise elsewhere in the world, including in countries like the United Kingdom and Canada, countries that are often “back-up plans” for Indians who do not get an H-1B visa or otherwise need to move out of the U.S. For instance, as per a survey by the Environics Institute for Survey Research (as cited by BBC), the percentage of Canadians who said that there were too many immigrants coming into the country increased from 27% to 58% between 2022 and 2024.
This leads us to a natural question – where will these H-1B workers go next? India is the top country of birth for H-1B workers, accounting for nearly 73% of applications approved in FY2023, per Pew research data. The wait time to get a green card for Indians can run into multiple decades, depending on the priority date. All this coincides with other Western countries tightening immigration regulations, making the prospect of moving back to India more palatable than before. But is India ready to reabsorb its highly skilled workforce that it has lost to the H-1B pipeline? The truth is, India might not need to do much to attract the talent it has lost to the U.S. – the factors listed above will likely catalyze a significant part of the process. However, some additional measures by the Indian government might be helpful.
First, India can make it easier for NRIs to move their assets to India by announcing a one-time relaxation in taxes over their assets. Many H-1B workers in the U.S. have accumulated a considerable amount of wealth, and the ability to move their assets without paying steep taxes would make the prospect of moving back to India more attractive. For lack of a better example, the 1981 Special Bearer Bonds (Immunities and Exemptions) Act was successful, to a limited extent, in incentivizing Indians to bring back cash that they had stashed overseas in an effort to shore up Indian foreign exchange reserves. Second, India needs to quickly create and expand re-entry schemes to strategic tech fields such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and ancillary service sectors. On this count, India can take inspiration from China’s Thousand Talent program, a government scheme to attract primarily Chinese talent from overseas job markets. Although this program has been frequently criticized by the U.S. for facilitating economic espionage, it has resulted in favorable results for China. Attracting and retaining highly skilled Indian talent would indeed be very beneficial for India as it braces itself for a self-reliant economy in high tech sectors like semiconductors. In all, if India is able to capitalize on the H-1B exodus and implement long pending structural reforms, it could accelerate India’s journey to become a developed nation.
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