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While what seems to be an election with an overwhelming support for RJD led Mahagathbandhan, however the most remarkable but muted play happening in the background is the race for Nitish Kumar’s spot in Bihar’s politics. And this vying for Nitish’s position is a closely contested fight among Vikashsheel Insaan Party (VIP) led by Mukesh Sahani, LJP’s Chirag Paswan and Jan Suraj’s Prashant Kishore.
With Nitish’s political epitaph already being written every day, these players are fast moving to replace the low pressure created by Nitish’s support evaporating on the ground. RJD and BJP are inducting Kurmi and Kushwaha leaders enmasse with the intention of keeping Nitish’s core constituency with them once it is orphaned after Nitish leaves the battleground. But Nitish was not just Kurmi and Kushwaha vote bank. He was a caste neutral ‘secular’ option for those who didn’t want to take sides in RJD vs BJP debate, which is a misnomer for Yadav vs Sawarn leadership tussle in Bihar. Bihar’s public, in absence of a Nitish Kumar, will discover or even go to an extent of inventing its new Nitish.
In a way, the fate of Bihar Vidhan Sabha elections 2030 and beyond, is being written in 2025. Whoever, among Sahani, Chirag and Prashant out-perform the others, the ‘secular’ constituency will revolve around the winner in the next election. It will also decide which castes will dominate the Bihar social space in the coming decades. And therefore, currently, all three leaders are trying their best to keep a very caste neutral face to galvanise the broadest spectrum on their sides which is up for auction with Nitish’s farewell.
While, Prashant Kishore’s upper caste and Chirag’s dalit identity might work against them to create a Nitish like social consensus however both of them have a new vision for Bihar which might attract a broad-based support. But right now, the most suitable boy seems to be Mukesh Shahni. Coming from mallaah caste, an EBC community, he stands the best chance to replace Nitish’s void and bind together the widest and even deeper consensus than Nitish Kumar. He represents the section within OBC which lagged behind in the social justice programme that came with Mandal politics.
But the only thing that works against Mukesh Sahani right now is his past electoral performance. He has not been able to convert the hefty constituency he represents into seats. But with RJD’s lahar blowing in the countryside, Mukesh Sahani is destined to succeed. And might I dare to say, that in RJD’s success in 2025 will be hidden its tragic destiny in 2030 and beyond with chances of Sahani becoming the new dulha, after Nitish courting the janta for two long decades. Although RJD has already promised Sahani deputy-chief-ministership, it has also declared that there will be multiple deputy-chief-ministers, a move aimed at clipping Sahani’s wings so that people do not see any leadership attributes in the VIP chief which might be visible otherwise. One should not forget that the current RJD wave is fuelled by the huge youth connect who are upbeat about Tejaswi as prospective CM and make no mistake, he earned this support only because of his handsome resume boasting of lakhs of jobs being given during his short stint as deputy chief minister.