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Violent rumblings from across the eastern Himalayas ranges are giving shivers of concern to everyone watching the terrible happenings in Nepal on various prime time and social media. What started as protests by ‘Gen Z’ or ‘Gen Zee’ against nepotism, corruption and unemployment seem to have got hijacked and made to metamorphose into a frightful anarchy and mayhem putting Nepal on the boil and on the brink of an unfathomable disaster. The unruly mob, blood on the streets, utter lawlessness, burning of the Presidential palace and Parliament, resignation of the Prime Minister and fleeing of the Nepalese cabinet to safety paint an extremely dismal picture of a beautiful Himalayan country more known for its serene tranquil tourist destinations and people with unhurried and relaxed attitude. With no government to control the lawless and agitated mobs and no immediate solution in sight, the situation looking terribly grim and worrisome would be an understatement.
Right from the days when Nepal had absolute royal rule till it gave way to constitutional monarchy which finally ended as the country becoming a federal republic, its relation with India has traditionally been very warm and friendly. Irrespective of the political dispensations (many including the last one being communist and hence understandably leaning towards China), the two countries have had strong, historically unique Military ties built on cooperation and mutual respect. This defense partnership is a crucial component of the broader bilateral relationship. From the fearless Nepali soldiers in the Gurkha regiments of the Indian Army, to both the Army chiefs holding the honorary post of chief of each other’s army, Indo-Nepal military ties have been nothing less than legendary.
The cause of the mass unrest which eventually culminated into extreme violence by an overly energised and agitated mob causing serious harm to life and property needs to be analysed and understood because it is happening in the immediate neighbourhood of India. While political analysts can evaluate and point out the mistakes done by the polity, opposition parties, government policies which have gone wrong, public opinion and sentiments, it is also very important to try and understand the implications of this disturbance to the security of India.
Though it will be farfetched to think that another front has opened up on the Indo-Nepal border, chances of this border being used for stoking some fire of unrest especially in the eastern parts of India cannot be ruled out. For many years now, the Indo-Nepal border which has a relaxed policy of travel between the two countries for its citizens, has also got the ill-repute of helping criminals from India crossing over into Nepal for a safe haven and terrorists and antinational elements infiltrating into India with nefarious intentions. There is a dedicated Central Armed Police Force called Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) for guarding India’s borders with Nepal and Bhutan. Inspite of the strict border control by SSB, local police and other security forces, the Indo-Nepal border does not get the public importance from the security point of view as the Indo-Pak, Indo-China borders or even the borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar. Across the world, no border can be guarded completely to the very inch and Indo Nepal border is no exception. Unlike the other two land borders which always hog the limelight (mostly for wrong reasons), Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bhutan borders are more known for the ease of crossing over by citizens of both countries for casual visits as well as for trade and business. Mass unrest, sudden absence of governance and violent uprising in Nepal puts the border with India at a serious risk.
While it is for the analysts to draw parallels between what is happening today in Nepal with what happened in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar and even Pakistan in the recent past and deduce as to which are the powers that benefit by orchestrating such violent mass protests to topple governments, it is imperative to take lessons and make notes so that such incidents do not take place in India and affect the lives of its citizens.
Almost all the happenings in our adjacent countries took place by rapid and mass circulation of malicious ‘toolkits’ on social media. Such toolkits are more often than not, a clever mix of depiction of societal wrongs and shortcomings of the governing powers viz. corruption, unemployment, lawlessness, highhandedness by authorities, nepotism, religious divides and intolerance etc, and a veiled message of how and where to spark a protest. Such protests are then manoeuvred so that the spark converts into a raging uncontrollable inferno which engulfs the entire country before the authorities can take remedial actions. Smaller countries are more susceptible because of geographical limitations and homogenous population but it definitely does not make a large and diverse country like India immune or less vulnerable in any way.
From a security point of view, there needs to be an effective check on various social media platforms because till now they seem to be the only means of spreading the toolkits in the fastest and effective manner. The government must have dedicated agencies of experts who can link chatter on social media platforms, public sentiments and buzz, statements by influencers and sources of funding of probable protest leaders. This needs a round the year and round the clock alertness and monitoring for taking prompt action long before any such spark turn into an intractable fire.
Liberal use of Drones and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) must be made to screen and search the affected border areas to spot and detect infiltration and any suspicious activities. Mass production of low-tech tactical drones will be required for deploying them at posts and sub-unit levels. These drones and UAVs will obviously be augmented with human intelligence and with every other form of information gathering. Any amount of surveillance is always less for the security of the country.
Sensitive institutions like colleges and universities which organically form the catchment area for recruiting protestors who end up becoming the motivated and willing ground soldiers for the faceless mob need to be kept under discreet checks so that influencers do not have a easy run with their provocations. The academic bodies and administrators should be sensitised and trained to spot and report any such issues which may lead to undesirable consequences.
While the situation in Nepal is still evolving and hopefully peace and sanity will return at some point in time, the lives lost and damages caused to the governance, rule of law, government, public and private property cannot be undone. It will take considerable effort to rebuild Nepal from the ashes and restore the reputation of the country. Public of India and the powers that be must be alert and heed to any warning signs that may lead to similar events and consequences as have been happening in the neighbourhood.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.