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Karnataka’s newly released caste census has re-ignited old debates with fresh urgency. The report not only quantifies decades of political intuition but recommends a bold recalibration of raising backward class reservations from 32% to 51%. Yet, even as caste resurfaces at the centre of policy discourse, electoral strategies on the ground are quietly shifting elsewhere.
Across India, political mobilisation is undergoing a silent yet significant reorientation, from caste arithmetic to gender dynamics. The 2024 general elections saw nearly 471 million women cast their vote almost matching the 497 million male voters.
For political parties that once hitched to rigid caste configurations this rising wave of women voters represents not just a demographic shift but a strategic inflection point that is already reshaping campaign priorities, welfare designs and the vocabulary of power itself.
Kamandal Politics
Data analysis of 2019 parliamentary elections clearly shows that there was a decline in kamandal politics which had been the trend since 80s and 90s.
An analysis shows that across 27 states of India, ethnic voting was very low in 2019 parliamentary elections, except for two northeastern states. Further analysis of available data showed that there is almost negligible ethnic voting to be found in central and state elections. Ethnic cues are slowly losing relevance in voting choices. Cross-ethnic voting has become a common practise in India for quite some time now (Reilly 2021). Wilkinson (2004) contend that Indian states which have high level of party fractionalization, minorities are considered as swing voters. Hence, it is difficult to find block voting of one ethno-religious group for one party.
Yogendra Yadav, the famous political scholar and activist succinctly points out that now Indians are moving from identity politics to identity and politics, that they are not only casting vote based on identity but also concerned about development of their identity group.
Why and when did this happen?
Some of the parties very clearly identified itself to particular ethnic group (like BSP), are losing relevance. Most of the active parties now have a wider support base covering more than one ethnic group. Even the ruling party BJP, known to be a right-wing, upper-caste, Hindu based party, is seen campaigning for support of other castes. In 2019, BJP won 10 out of 21 additional members from SC/ST communities. Amongst the reserved seats the party won 77 of 131 such constituencies as against 67 in 2014 (BJP’s additional seats). Interestingly, BJP, which was estranged from Dalits and tribal groups, won maximum number of seats from SC (84) and ST (47) compared to any other party in 2019.
Despite this overwhelming support from SC/ST communities, budget allocations under different schemes directed towards these communities remained deficient (Union Budget for SC/ST). The Dalit Arthik Adhikar Andolan and National Campaign on Dalit Human Rights claimed that the increase in funds for SC/ST communities in Union Budget 2019-20 was a mere eyewash. It did not follow the guidelines laid by NITI Aayog that funds for development of SC/ST communities should be proportionate to their population. The budgetary allocation for some key schemes like post-matric scholarships were reduced. There was a growth of fund allocations to the indirect schemes which does not have much tangible benefits for these communities. The half-hearted approach of government towards SC/ST is well reflected in the ASER report 2024 (ASER Report 2024). There remain wide disparities in enrollment and learning outcomes amongst children from SC/ST communities.
Health-wise also these communities are in an appalling situation. NFHS data indicated that about 43% (SC) and 44% (ST) children are still suffering from malnutrition leading to problems alike stunting, underweight, etc. These children are severely deficient on important micronutrients like iron, vit A and iodine. There is negligible improvement in the life of people from these communities in the last three decades.
Caste to Gender
Undoubtedly, the boat of ethnic politics is shaking. Political parties are learning slowly and quite steadily that they will not be able to survive if they rely on any particular group based on caste and religion. Rather, to stay in power or even to win power, they will need a wider base.
The evidence of this transformation is everywhere with major political parties rolling out ambitious women-centric welfare programs that promise immediate financial relief. In reality, they really were calculated electoral bribes masquerading as empowerment. As proposed in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election manifesto the Congress party’s Mahalakshmi plan offered a staggering ₹1 lakh annually to the eldest woman in economically disadvantaged households and BJP countered it with its Subhadra Yojana which provides ₹50,000 vouchers to women across socioeconomic divides. These weren’t just any policy tweaks but they represent a fundamental shift in how political power is being pursued and secured in contemporary India today.
This shift from caste to gender has increased the impact of women manifold. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP’s Ladli Behna scheme which provides 1,000 rupees monthly to women aged 23 to 60 helped the party to a resounding victory in the 2023 assembly elections. Similarly, Karnataka’s Congress party leveraged its Gruha Lakshmi initiative which offered ₹2,000+ free bus rides for female household heads that helped them secure a convincing win that same year. Even in Delhi’s recent electoral contest the female vote emerged as a critical demographic that no serious political contender could afford to ignore.
True Picture
Yet beneath this wave of welfare-driven electoral strategies lies a troubling paradox that reveals the limitations of India’s approach to genuine women’s empowerment. While parties compete to shower women with cash benefits and financial incentives, they simultaneously neglect the fundamental systems that could truly transform lives and communities. Earlier victims were the lower castes, who could not reap any benefits against their promised support of any party. India allocates less than 1% of its GDP to healthcare and education budgets are far from the global standard of 6%. But now these political parties might be just a little too self-aware of how well-educated, economically independent female electorate would demand more than just pre-election handouts.
This tension between short-term electoral gains and long-term structural neglect has created a situation where immediate relief often masks deeper institutional failures. The BJP made all the right noises in its 2014 manifesto with promises like curbing crimes against women expanding female education and providing 33% reservation in legislatures but 2030 which remained empty words.
Statistics released by the NCRB however tell a grim story with crimes against women go up by 4,45,250 in 2022 from 3,38,000 in 2014. The Women’s Reservation Bill which was passed in 2023 waits in limbo.
This is the exact disparity that undermines the rhetoric of empowerment when basic economic security and opportunities remain elusive for millions of Indian women. The extension of welfare programs although might alleviate immediate hardship but it fundamentally sidesteps the structural investments in crucial areas like agriculture, healthcare and education that could lift entire communities out of cyclical poverty and dependency.
Way Forward
Nevertheless, amid these contradictions there are genuine undeniable changes taking root across India’s electoral landscape. Tamil Nadu’s Kalaignar Magalir Urimai scheme and Rajasthan’s Grah Laxmi Guarantee are putting resources directly into women’s hands in a society where they’ve traditionally had limited access to assets or agency. Over the months and years since, voter turnout figures have been closing the gender gap at the polling booths.
In fact, important regional differences show up as well. The BJP’s cash-obsessed emphasis has not struck a chord in states such as Kerala where voters (including women) have preferred intergenerational mobility and sustainable development over immediate rewards.
As the democratic trajectory of India shapes up, the emerging impact of the women voters poses immense opportunities as well as challenges. The ballot is now a potent weapon in the hands of the women and grows more powerful with every electoral cycle, But the real question is whether this new, heady political attention will lead to real empowerment or just new forms of dependency that serve electoral ends. Hopefully, India’s Behens and Betis will enjoy the fruits of their toil, unlike the Pichdas had earlier.
Swetasree Ghosh Roy, professor of political science at Jindal School of Government and Public Policy and director of Jindal Policy Research Lab; Ankur Singh is a student of B.A. in Economics at Jindal School of Government and Public Policy.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.