SubscriberWrites: BJP’s dominance and leadership gaps in INDI Alliance suggest NDA-4 victory in 2029

After three consecutive BJP wins, the INDI Alliance faces internal challenges and leadership gaps, making a potential NDA-4 victory in 2029 the most likely outcome.

BJP supporters at swearing in ceremony | Photo: Suraj Singh Bisht | ThePrint

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After three successive state  wins by the BJP, the obituary of the INDI Alliance is being written and spoken about across all forms of media. The mudslinging between political opponents has reached new lows, further diminishing the quality of discourse in Indian politics.

Forming pre-poll alliances to defeat the incumbent has been a recurring strategy in Indian politics. However, there have been only two instances when a pre-poll alliance of a majority of opposition parties successfully defeated the ruling party.

On both occasions, the Congress was the incumbent:

1. 1977 – The opposition capitalized on the strong anti-Emergency sentiment.
2. 1989 – The Bofors scandal played a crucial role in shaping public sentiment.

However, in both instances, the opposition left Indian voters in the lurch, as neither government could last beyond 30/32 months.

A surprise opportunity fell into the opposition’s lap in 2004, and the seasoned leadership of the Congress seized it. Not only did they complete their full term, but they also managed to retain power in the subsequent election.

The INDI Alliance in 2024 neither had a compelling reason to turn the tide in its favor nor approached the election with wholehearted effort and strategic planning. Yet, a single comment by the Ayodhya MP on the Constitution managed to create panic within the NDA and prevented the BJP from securing a majority on its own.

Looking ahead to 2029, several possibilities could shape the outcome:

• A surprise result, similar to 2004.
• A self-goal by NDA-3.
• A continued run for NDA-4.

The biggest challenge for the INDI Alliance is the lack of political wisdom and maturity within the current Congress leadership, especially when compared to its 2004 leadership.

In five years, they are unlikely to find leaders of the stature of Pranab Mukherjee, Ghulam Nabi Azad, or Anand Sharma.

Though too early to predict but Given these factors, a return of NDA-4 seems the most likely outcome in 2029. 

These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.