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The results of the Bihar state elections are finally out. Most exit polls predicted a slender majority for the BJP-led NDA, but the final results tell a different story. The NDA decimated the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) by winning 202 seats (83.13%) in a house of 243. The MGB’s share could win only 35 seats (14.4%). The AIMIM won five of the remaining six seats. Surprisingly, the Jan Suraj Party, led by Prashant Kishore, failed to open its account in the state.
A noteworthy feature of NDA’s performance is that all its parties put up a spectacular show. The BJP increased its tally from 74 in 2020 to 89, the JD(U) from 43 to 85, and the Lok Jan Shakti Party (LJPRV) from 1 to 19. In contrast, the opposition parties lost significant ground. RJD’s tally fell from 75 to 25, Congress’s from 19 to 6, the Communist Party of India (ML) (L) from 6 to 2. All of AIMIM’s wins came in constituencies with a Muslim population of 40% or more. In such constituencies, the NDA contested nine seats but won only 2. The RJD failed to open its account. In constituencies with a Muslim population of 20-40%, the BJP, JDU, and LJPRV won 12 of the 13 seats they contested. The RJD won only one of the six seats it contested.
A lot of discussion is taking place on the reasons for the success of the NDA and the pathetic performance of the MGB. Many believe that the last-minute transfer of Rs 10,000 into the accounts of women by the NDA government was a major factor. One would have to be very naïve to believe this. Both sides offered various incentives and freebies, including the RJD’s lucrative promise of one government job per household and to deposit Rs 2,500 per month in the bank accounts of “eligible women” in Bihar for five years, among many others. If incentives were to be the game changers, this one perk of a government job would have won the race hands down. While such freebies may sway a few, they cannot result in a major shift in the fortunes of any party across the state. However, this is exactly what happened in favour of the NDA that even overcame an anti-incumbency sentiment.
Such major shifts in public perceptions are rarely, if ever, a result of any one reason. Public opinions do not undergo such shifts in a matter of days, particularly when local societies are politically very vocal and social equations dictate voting patterns. Instead, they are a result of a steady buildup over a period, a process that slowly but surely changes perceptions and the social equations. Best results are achieved when this buildup peaks at the right time; in such an eventuality, the results can be astounding. The personal charisma of leaders and their credibility play a decisive role in this exercise. It may be prudent to believe that this is what happened in Bihar this time. This major shift in favour of the NDA can be attributed to the following factors:
- On the credibility front, MGA leaders Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav raise more doubts than confidence among the voters. The voters are skeptical about believing their promises and assurances. Within the NDA, Prime Minister Modi’s reputation for delivering on promises is considered strong, which complements Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s significant goodwill and loyal support base among the people of Bihar.
- The primary focus of state elections is generally on local issues, but occasionally, national matters can play a crucial, outcome-altering role. In the current case, two issues, Operation Sindoor and India’s firm stand against the US government’s tariffs on Indian exports, fall in this category. It will be naive to assume that they had no role to play in state elections. Any strong stand or decisive measure in favour of national interests will always sit well with the majority of voters.
- The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise not only had broad public support but also contributed to a significant increase in voter participation. Voters turned out in record numbers. The public opposition to the SIR by the MGB coalition was perceived by many as an attempt at minority appeasement, which may have consequently alienated a segment of the majority electorate from the alliance.
- Opposition’s rantings notwithstanding, a normal Bihari citizen can see the development work, including infrastructure, carried out in the state. Bihar has shown a strong economic growth in recent years. Its Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) grew by 9.2% in 2023-24, making it one of the fastest-growing state economies in the country. Many voters would remember the ‘jungle raj’ days in Bihar for years, when there was hardly any growth. Mr. Modi made sure to remind the public of this in his speeches.
Bihar elections are normally dominated by social equations based on caste, region, community, social status, and other similar distinctions apart from the minority and majority divide. This results in the majority being divided into many parts while the minority remains cohesive. In 2025, the two national issues discussed above will have played their part in uniting the majority, overcoming some social barriers. This is an encouraging and favourable development, both for the nation and the NDA. The increase in NDA’s vote share by 9.34% to a record 46.6% in 2025 is, in all probability, a result of this development. For the record, the MGB’s vote share grew only 0.67% to 37.9%.
Bihar has a very youthful population today, with 58% of the population under 25 years of age. Another survey shows that 40% are below 18 years of age and 23% between 18 and 29 years, making it the state with the highest number of youthful populations. Bihar’s overall literacy rate was estimated at 79.7% in 2023-24. Unlike their previous generations, the youth are more focused on jobs, careers, growth, and less on caste and other social issues. In the last few years, women voters have directly benefited from many government schemes. It may be prudent to assume that this would have enhanced their dignity and self-esteem and endeared many among them to the NDA government, resulting in more votes for the NDA. This would not have been possible without both the youth and women overcoming some of the traditional social constraints and voting for the NDA.
These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.