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Nukes means nuclear weapons, so two wars are going on in Middle East and Eastern Europe. The third one might begin in few years in Taiwan, as China prepares its military in the years ahead. But what is the consequences in war for India-China nuclear dyad? Any use of nuclear weapon anywhere will be assessed under international law, jus ad bellum (to govern the interstate use of force) and jus in bello (international law applied in war). The primary rule in jus in bello is found in the laws of war, it is well known as international humanitarian law (IHL). IHL states fundamentally that a nation-state in any conflict shall be directing an attack on lawful military objective (a military person and military infrastructure). A supportive rule being that any military attack should be proportionate. For example, the atomic bombings by the USA in Japan during first week of August 1945 killed far too many people than was required to make Japan bend its knee in front of the USA. Also, it caused huge environmental damage. So, as a part of the proportionality rule one should not attack leading to an excessive environmental damage. ICJ’s 1996 Advisory Opinion on the Legality for the Threat or use of nuclear weapons is notable, the Judge Schwebel speculated on varied kinds of use of nuclear weapons and whether or not it will be legal. The Judge Schwebel said that if a tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) is used on a submarine in the sea, then it will not cause any civilian causalities as the sea is quite far from the shores. The Judge Schwebel did cite an example of a nuclear ‘depth-charge’ in order to destroy one submarine that is scheduled for launch of a nuclear weapon or a submarine that has already fired at least one nuclear missile, so Schwebel concluded that it will be in accordance with IHL. Another frequently cited scene is concerning the usage of nuclear weapons for destroying an adversarial force in a desert. Schwebel did conclude, fairly as ‘certain circumstances, such a use of nuclear weapons might meet the tests of discrimination and proportionality; in others not.’ But it also invokes one more rule of IHL and that is to prohibit the use of means as well as methods of a war, which is of a nature capable enough to cause excessive injuries or the not so required type of pain that an individual goes through (unnecessary suffering rule). So, in its Advisory opinion, the ICJ did conclude that a use of nuclear weapon will ‘generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict, and in particular the principles and rules of humanitarian law’. Therefore, nuclear weapons or nuclear tipped missiles are useless and does not help protect a country. After the events of August 1945 that is why no political leader has dared to use a nuclear weapon as the cost outweigh any potential benefits. Russia has accepted staggering casualties in its war with Ukraine, instead of using nukes! In the Cold War too such examples existed. Another example, nearly three decades since nuclear weapons test, India is unable to stop the Chinese incursions into its territory. In September 2021, CDS Bipin Rawat had said that India will develop a rocket force of its own. At least indirectly he was trying to hint at the fact that the missile asymmetry between India and China is growing and this gap needs to be bridged. In December 2022 the MoD cleared the proposal to build 120 Pralay ballistic missiles, which are meant to be deployed along the borders with Pakistan and China. Another order for Pralay missiles was placed in May 2023. Pralay has a maximum range of 500 kms. Another missile Shaurya that has got a conventional role too is a ballistic missile, it flies at hypersonic speeds of MACH 7.5. Depending on the size and weight of warhead the range of Shaurya missile varies. Theoretically it has a range of 750kms. Officially the Government of India has never said that it is meant to be nuclear tipped missile. So, this missile will be a great weapon for warfighting. After some further testing in the years to come, it is officially expected to be inducted in the Indian Armed Forces. The newer variant of the Shaurya missile being developed is having a higher range of 1800 kms depending upon size and weight of the warhead. It’s important that India develops a rocket force which helps it win a war with respect to China, in order to ensure that the PLA Rocket Force (inventory of dual use missiles; either conventional and nuclear tippled) is not able to checkmate India. The Chinese realized long ago the importance of these missiles.
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