New Delhi: It has been nearly five weeks since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, but the fighting appears to have ground to a stalemate, with the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) declaring Sunday that the “battlefield across northern Ukraine remains largely static.”
Russia has had five main axes of attack into Ukraine — the capital, Kyiv; Chernihiv and Sumy in the north; Kharkiv in the north-east; Donetsk and Luhansk in the east; and Kherson in the south.
According to the Washington, DC-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), from 26 to 27 March, neither Russia nor Ukraine conducted any major operations in Kyiv. In Sumy and in Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine conducted limited counterattacks. And Russia didn’t carry out any operations in Kharkiv or Kherson.
Kyiv axis (capital)
The priority for Russian forces has been to encircle Kyiv from the northwest, west, and east. According to reports, Russian Eastern Military District (EMD) commander Colonel-General Alexander Chayko has been given the responsibility to personally oversee efforts to regroup Russian forces in allied Belarus, and then to galvanise their operations to encircle Kyiv.
However, neither Russian nor Ukrainian armies carried out any major ground operations around Kyiv on 27 March. According to the BBC, the largest concentration of Russian troops remains around Kyiv.
Authorities from the Kyiv region reported that limited shelling continued in the suburbs around the capital — Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel, Borodyanka, and Makariv — on 27 March. The closest that Russian troops have got to Kyiv is at Bucha and Irpin, approximately 25 km from the capital.
The ISW argues that the stalemate around Kyiv reflects the incapacity of Russian forces.
Chernihiv & Sumy axis (north)
Russia’s inability to take Chernihiv, northeast of Kyiv, has also limited its ability to attack the capital from the east.
However, according to reports, the mayor of Chernihiv declared on 25 March that Russian forces had completely encircled the city and were attacking residential areas.
On 26 March, Russia captured the town of Slavutych, west of Chernihiv. However, civilian authorities and the public refused to cooperate with Russian forces, protesting against them. This reportedly led to the Russians releasing the town’s captured mayor and agreeing to leave.
Reports from the Ukrainian Army and social media claim that the former carried out limited counterattacks in Sumy from 26 to 27 March. The reports suggested that Ukraine recaptured Trostyanets and Husarivka in Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv axis (northeast)
Around Kharkiv city, Russia launched no operations between 26 and 27 March. On the other hand, Ukraine’s army carried out a counterattack in Vilkhivka, near the eastern side of Kharkiv. However, reports did not confirm whether the Ukrainians had recaptured the town.
Also read: Russia will use nukes only if ‘threat to existence’, not in Ukraine conflict
Donetsk and Luhansk axis (east)
Recently, Russia has appeared to recalibrate its strategy to state that the focus of the invasion is to “completely liberate the Donbas region”.
Even before the invasion, Russia-backed separatists held large chunks of territory in Donbas. Now, the Kremlin claims to control 93 per cent of Luhansk and 54 per cent of Donetsk.
According to Ukraine’s army, on 27 March, seven Russian attacks were repelled in Luhansk and Donetsk.
Kherson axis (south)
While Russian forces made rapid gains in the south at the beginning of the campaign, their progress has slowed down since the beginning of March.
Their goal to link the Crimea — an erstwhile Ukrainian territory invaded and annexed by Russia in 2014 —with the Donbas region in the east is facing resistance around the port city of Mariupol in the south.
After a month of bombardment, encircled by Russian troops, Mariupol continues to resist, despite severe shortages of food, water and electricity. The city’s mayor has warned that the people’s condition was “beyond the line of humanitarian catastrophe”.
Further in the Kherson region, Russia did not conduct any offensive operations on 27 March.
Ukraine’s demand for weapons and more support
In an emotional interview with The Economist, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to Western powers to help his country with renewed vigour.
Zelenskyy demanded that the West completely cut off Russia from the SWIFT international banking system, claiming that certain banks and top officials in Moscow still had access to it.A number of Russian banks were cut off from the payment gateway earlier this month.
He also implored the US and NATO to provide more tanks, planes. and armoured vehicles, arguing that shortages were preventing Ukraine from countering Russia to its full potential and taking back more cities.
Access to tanks and armoured vehicles would allow Ukraine to “unblock Russia-occupied cities, bring food to residents there, and take the military initiative into its own hands,” he said.
(Edited by Rohan Manoj)
Also read: ‘Expressing moral outrage’ says Biden, clarifies Putin ‘cannot remain in power’ remark