By Kate Holton
LONDON, Dec 18 (Reuters) – The European Union must reform or risk becoming irrelevant as the rivalry between China and the U.S. sparks a new era without precedent, posing challenges on security, energy, technology and trade, a report led by Tony Blair and Jamie Dimon says.
Based on conversations with government, business and civil leaders, the report sets out how a convergence of structural shifts is reshaping nations, markets and institutions, threatening those countries and groupings that once relied on the U.S. for security while growing trade ties with China.
Blair, British prime minister from 1997 to 2007, and Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase, said Europe needed to integrate further to prioritise defence and economic growth.
“If it cannot stand on its own against Russia, it will be even less able to manage systemic competition with the U.S. or China,” their report said. “Reform is not optional; it is required to remain relevant.”
EU HAS SAID IT MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR OWN SECURITY
The blunt summary comes as the EU hosts a summit to discuss funding for Ukraine and how it can respond to the “changed landscape for rules-based economic relations”, and as U.S. President Donald Trump heaps pressure on the bloc, including with a new National Security Strategy.
The head of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has said that Europe must reform and be responsible for its own security. Supporters of the bloc would note that while Europe’s share of global GDP is declining, the U.S. is on the same path.
The report also set out the challenge posed to middle powers such as India and the Gulf states from the new dynamic, as part of a broad overview of how geopolitics, artificial intelligence and political populism were upending the world order.
NEW WORLD ORDER IS LIKE A 3D CHESS BOARD
Alexander George, an author of the “World Rewired: Navigating a Multi-Speed, Multipolar Order” report, said people had previously been able to look to moments in history for guidance.
“We’re really living in a new world which has never actually existed before,” he said. “It’s like this 3D chess board.”
The report said the U.S. retained enduring power but faced its greatest threats at home where political volatility makes it harder to tackle high debt, while China’s trajectory will hinge on whether it can maintain growth despite demographic and debt constraints.
On middle powers it said the steep U.S. tariffs on India in retaliation for its purchase of Russian oil showed the limitations to a multi-alignment approach, while the UAE’s move to strengthen U.S. technology ties showed that countries were having to choose between the U.S. and China on tech.
The report was produced by Dimon’s JPMorgan Chase, which has launched a $1.5 trillion, decade-long plan to support industries deemed vital to U.S. economic security and resilience, and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Blair is the chair of JPMorgan’s international council which advises the firm on strategy and geopolitics.
(Reporting by Kate HoltonEditing by Alexandra Hudson)
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