Boris Johnson warns of Covid deaths on ‘grievous scale’ if UK lockdown rules not followed

Critics of the new curbs have questioned the projections behind the decision, specifically one warning there could be 4,000 deaths per day without intervention, which Johnson cited.

File photo of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson | Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg

London: Boris Johnson warned of a “risk of mortality on a grievous scale” if fresh coronavirus lockdown rules are not agreed to by the U.K. Parliament on Wednesday, as he sought to face down rebels in his own Conservative Party opposed to the plan.

The premier also tried to ease concerns about the financial support available for the lockdown, telling the House of Commons that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will spell out details on Thursday, including details on the furlough program that he’s extended to Dec. 2.

“All the scientific experts I’ve talked to are unanimous one one point: if we don’t act now the chances of the National Health Service being in extraordinary trouble come December are very very high,” Johnson told lawmakers on Wednesday. “I’m not prepared to take the risk with the lives of the British people.”

The regulations are due to take effect from midnight, enforcing the closing of pubs, gyms and non-essential shops in England, and restricting social contact between households. The prime minister announced the monthlong lockdown on Saturday after data showed the pandemic exceeding even the worst-case projections of his scientific advisers, threatening to overwhelm hospitals.

There’s a political cost to the prime minister, who for weeks opposed a second national lockdown as a “nuclear” option, ridiculing opposition Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer for demanding one. His U-turn sparked concerns among business leaders and anger within his party.

“We are in this house to serve, not dictate,” rank-and-file Tory Member of Parliament Richard Drax said in a parliamentary debate Tuesday. “As we hurtle towards another lockdown, I would not be doing my constituents a service if I did not question the wisdom of following what has already been implemented and failed.”

On Wednesday, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab tried to placate critics by saying the curbs would definitely end on Dec. 2. Ministers give “people, businesses, but also families some respite and flexibility at Christmas,” Raab told LBC radio.

Both Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 committee of rank-and-file Tory lawmakers, and his deputy, Charles Walker, have said they’ll vote against the regulations, but Walker told Sky News on Monday he doesn’t expect the rebellion to exceed 20. That’s fewer than half the 42 Tories who rebelled in a vote last month to confirm the government’s imposition of a 10 p.m. curfew on pubs and restaurants.

Nevertheless, the rules appear certain to go through because Starmer has said Labour will vote for them, making any small-scale Tory rebellion moot.

The rebels are demanding proof that Johnson has an exit strategy, amid fears the curbs will be extended if the infection rate has not dropped sufficiently, and the premier sought to allay concerns that the rules might be in place for longer than a month.

Deaths

“The autumn measures will expire automatically on December 2,” Johnson told Parliament on Wednesday. He said authorities will use the next month to develop programs of mass testing that will enable the country to open up again.

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty told lawmakers on Tuesday that the looming lockdown offers a “realistic possibility” of allowing England to return to looser social-distancing restrictions in December — if people obey the rules. He said the new rules could “pull us back in time” and bring the reproduction rate of the virus below the key threshold where it spreads exponentially.

Critics of the new curbs have questioned the projections behind the decision, specifically one warning there could be 4,000 deaths per day without intervention, which was used by a Johnson in a televised presentation Saturday.

The government published the modeling Tuesday and, while one model projected deaths peaking at 4,000 a day just before Christmas without any extra restrictions to halt the spread of Covid, a graph of consensus projections showed daily deaths in England at lower than 1,000 in December.

But Whitty said even the lower number “would imply significant pressure” on other parts of the health service, and warned that matching the spring peak of about 1,000 deaths per day “is entirely realistic” without the government taking action.

In another sign of the difficulties the measures are causing the prime minister, the government angered Scottish National Party Leader Nicola Sturgeon because of the lack of clarity over whether the financial assistance that accompanies the lockdown will apply also to Scotland if it follows England into stricter rules.

Asked on Wednesday whether state-backed furlough at 80% of pay will be available to regions other than England if they need to go into lockdown beyond Dec. 2, Johnson said “of course it will continue to be available to the people of Scotland,” adding that Sunak will provide “elucidation” on Thursday.- Bloomberg