At times, 2024 has felt like a pivotal moment as the balance of world power appears to tilt on its axis. Conflict, trade tensions and economic turbulence are contributing to a more uncertain geopolitical global framework.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on the Future of Geopolitics has framed this shift as “a new, more contentious geopolitical era … with the possibility that a once stable and cooperative order is being replaced by a more turbulent and fragmented global landscape”.
As this geopolitically impactful year unfolds, here are five things you need to know about a shifting global order.
1. Democracy put to the test
Adding to the sense that a significant global moment is evolving is the fact that around a quarter of the world’s adult population is eligible to vote in elections this year.
This article highlights the opportunities and risks in a year when so many elections are taking place. The threat from misinformation and disinformation emerged as the greatest risk in the Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024, with the potential to destabilize the electoral process in multiple countries.
“The spread of false information could significantly impact electoral outcomes and government legitimacy,” the report says. “This widespread dissemination of misleading content, facilitated by various tools and platforms, has the potential to exacerbate societal and political divisions.”
According to democracy advocacy group, International IDEA, more than 2.3 billion people have already taken part in elections, with the pivotal US election still to come in November.
2. The rise of the middle powers
As global trade routes and supply chains rapidly realign, countries with the ability to straddle geopolitical fault lines can position themselves to reap the rewards. This article explains how so-called middle powers, or ‘geopolitical swing states’ are pursuing their domestic interests without picking sides.
India is leveraging its positive relations with both the US and China to drum up business and investment from both sides. Meanwhile, Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia are diversifying their economies and playing an increasingly visible role in shaping geopolitical relations across the region and beyond.
3. Geopolitical tensions accelerate carbon emissions
Since the Second World War, a stable global order has helped create supply chains that eased the flow of trade around the world. This article reveals how geopolitical friction leads to greater carbon emissions as nations try to circumvent blocks to free-flowing trade.
The effect of the conflict in the Middle East is having a serious impact on shipping in the Red Sea.
Vessels travelling between Asia, Europe and North America are being forced to reroute to avoid the risk of attack in the Red Sea.
Instead of transiting the Suez Canal, ships are sailing around Africa, adding up to 10 days and thousands of kilometres to their journeys. Speaking to Time Magazine in January 2024, a shipping expert suggested re-routing cargo ships was adding 162,727 tonnes of emissions for every day the conflict rages.
4. In the grip of a geopolitical recession
At a time when the playbook for international relations, diplomacy and political good manners is being re-written, there are warnings the world is heading into what’s being called a geopolitical recession.
In this article, political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder of the consulting firm Eurasia Group, defines a geopolitical recession in the context of a world where established global power frameworks are crumbling. Building on his theme, Bremmer explains that the long-term rise of China and the Global South, combined with a decline of European and Japanese economic power, is driving a fundamental shift.
5. Pathways to cooperation amid geopolitical fragmentation
To mitigate the risks presented by a fracturing global system, nations will need greater engagement on issues including global security, climate action, emerging technology and international trade.
This article details pathways towards more effective cooperation, outlined in the report, Shaping Cooperation in a Fragmenting World, published by the Forum’s Global Future Council on Geopolitics.
The article argues that “the starting point must be to recognize that distrust is, in the short and medium term at least, a baked-in feature of geopolitical reality”. The report makes clear that to lessen the risks presented by a fracturing world, the international community must “manage the distrust so that it does not prevent collaboration or escalate to conflict”.