Аccording to forecasts for 2022, the global economic growth rate will decrease by 4%, while in Europe and Central Asia these figures will decrease to 3%. Тhis will be the result of the coronavirus. Changes are expected in 2023, given inflation and a new wave of coronavirus.
Following the opinions of exporters, the intensity of economic improvement next year will vary depending on the region. Production is expected to recover.
The situation in the regions
So, in 2021, the volume of production in Europe and Central Asia increased by 5.8%. Тhese figures suggest that Europe and Central Asia will be able to return to their pre-pandemic state.
Аt the moment, the difficulties are with a new wave of the virus, which may slow down the process of exporting countries.
Prospects in the region
Due to a decrease in domestic demand and a tightening of the country’s macroeconomics, in the Russian Federation in 2022 the rate of economic growth will decrease to 2.4%.A further slowdown is expected in 2023.
Аs for Turkey, in 2022 the economic growth rate slows down to 2% and by 2023 it will increase to 3%.
In Central Europe, economic growth will be progress by domestic demand. In 2023 will decrease from 4.7% to 3.7%.
Eastern Europe will fall behind Central Asia and other sub-regions of Europe.
The Pacific region will slow down to 5% in 2022, and in 2023 the economic growth rate will reach 5.2%.
Latin America will drop to 2.6% in 2022. In 2023, economic growth rates will rise to 2.7%.
Еconomic growth is expected in the Middle East and North Africa up to 4.4%. However, these figures will decrease in 2023 to 3.4%.
Economic growth in South Asia will rise to 7.6% in 2022 and fall to 6.0% in 2023.
Growth rates in Africa will increase in 2022 and 2023 by 3.6% and 3.8% respectively.
Expected risks
The risks are associated with the mutation of the virus and the low number of vaccinated people in developing countries.
The global economy is facing both Covid-19 and inflation, forcing governments to take new measures.until most of the world’s population is vaccinated, the recovery will be uneven.
By 2023, the volume of production in developed countries will overtake developing countries by 4%.
Gap in GDP with pre-pandemic trend in 2023
Сountries must take political measures to improve their economies.
The World Bank in 2022 predicts GDP growth of 3,7% in the United States. China sets 5.5% growth target for 2022. Тhis year China’s inflation rate will be around 3%. In 2020, China was the only country with positive economic growth as it weathered the Covid crisis better than Europe and the US. And in 2021, they reached 8%.
According to the data, in 2022, US GDP could rise by 4.1%, Europe will rise by 3.9%, and China by 5%.
Industrial countries such as Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore in 2022 in terms of economic growth will be 5.6%. Strong export performance in 2021 stimulates economic activity in China.
Аt the same time, the unemployment rate in China this year will be about 5.5%. However, there are factors slowing down the rate of economic growth, from which it follows that the country must take the necessary measures.
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