When the US Federal Reserve reduced its interest rate by a quarter percentage point last week, establishing the target range at 3.75-4 percent, it was not a bold stimulus but rather a cautious act of navigation. A prolonged government shutdown has left the Fed operating with limited information on inflation and jobs. For India, this development influences the global cost of capital, investor behaviour, and the overall pace of trade.
The rate cut was determined under extraordinary conditions. US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter, but more recent indicators suggest a cooling trend. Unemployment has risen to 4.3 percent, job creation has decelerated, and consumer spending is stabilising. Although inflation has decreased to approximately 3 percent year-on-year, it still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. Typically, policymakers would review fresh September data before making decisions, but since those reports never came, the Federal Reserve had to rely on August data. Bidisha Bhattacharya has more in #ThePrintEconomix