Al-Qaeda is on the verge of winning its first war with a nation-state: Will it take over Mali?

For months now, Al-Qaeda has choked supplies of food and fuel to Bamako, the capital of Mali. From 2013 on, French troops had protected Mali from Al-Qaeda insurgents. But in 2022, following a military coup, those troops were replaced by Russian mercenaries who are struggling in the face of dogged jihadist attacks. If Al-Qaeda succeeds, it will be the terrorist group’s first takeover of an entire nation-state.