New Delhi: India and New Zealand, both emerging from Group A, clash once again today after securing semi-final wins against Australia and South Africa, respectively. With New Zealand winning the toss and choosing to bat first, the stage is set for a thrilling showdown.
India’s toss woes continue as Mitchell Santner called correctly, opting to bat first. This stretches India’s astonishing losing streak to 15 consecutive tosses, defying improbable odds.
What the flip! #INDvNZ pic.twitter.com/BURz414taa
— ESPNcricinfo (@ESPNcricinfo) March 9, 2025
The probability of India’s toss drought is surprising, with mathematical calculations revealing odds as low as 0.0031 percent—equivalent to once in 32,768 cases. This losing streak marks Rohit Sharma’s 12th consecutive coin toss loss, a run that dates back to 19 November, 2023, when India fell to Australia in the World Cup final.
Rohit has equalled an unwanted record held by West Indies legend Brian Lara, who endured a similar streak of 12 consecutive toss losses between October 1998 and May 1999.
Cricket author and quizzer Joy Bhattacharjya amusingly took to X, saying, “The asteroid has a better chance of hitting us in 2032!”
Lots of stat geeks waiting for the toss before today's final.
Rohit has lost 11 tosses in a row, which happens once every 2048 times, but India has lost 14 in a row which happens 1 in 16,384 times or 0.0061%.
The asteroid has a better chance of hitting us in 2032!
— Joy Bhattacharjya (@joybhattacharj) March 9, 2025
Veteran cricket broadcaster and expert Harsha Bhogle believes it’s a “Very good toss win for NZ”, as he posted on X, raising concerns about the Indian spinners having to bowl under lights. He noted that they might have to restrict the Black Caps below 260.
Very good toss to win for NZ. Better pitch than some of the others, spinners have bowled better under lights and NZ have batted brilliantly in this tournament. Might need to restrict to 260.
— Harsha Bhogle (@bhogleharsha) March 9, 2025
Pitch report
According to former Australia captain, Aaron Finch This is a ‘bone dry surface’. He noted that even if it doesn’t turn, it will get slower and slower.
“It looks like a pretty dry surface. This is bone dry and it is a used wicket. You win the toss and bat first on this surface. It will get harder and harder to bat as the game goes on. Pace off will be the way to go for the bowlers,” he said at the pitch report making the chase for India harder as the game progresses.
Henry misses out
India has opted for an unchanged line-up, sticking with the same playing XI. Meanwhile, New Zealand has made an adjustment, bringing in all-rounder Nathan Smith to replace the injured Matt Henry, a potentially significant blow to the Kiwis.
Henry’s absence is a significant setback for New Zealand, as he suffered a shoulder injury against South Africa and was subsequently ruled out. Despite undergoing a fitness test on match day, Henry failed to prove his fitness, denying him a spot in the playing XI.
His absence is deeply felt, given that he was New Zealand’s highest wicket-taker in the tournament thus far with 10 wickets. His breakout performance came against India in their group stage encounter, where he claimed a five-wicket haul with impressive figures of 5/42.
Playing 11’s
INDIA: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, Axar Patel, K.L. Rahul (wk), Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami, Kuldeep Yadav, Varun Chakaravarthy.
NEW ZEALAND: Rachin Ravindra, Will Young, Kane Williamson, Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham (wk), Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell, Mitchell Santner (c), Will O’Rourke, Nathan Smith, Kyle Jamieson.
(Edited by Zinnia Ray Chaudhuri)
Dear Print team, this article is, unfortunately, based in a very common, but erroneous assumption about how probability works. The logic used in this article is called the Monte Carlo fallacy/gamblers fallacy and leads to the untrue prediction/assumption that India losing the top for the 12th time in a row is very unlikely. As an example, if we toss a fair coin 5 times in a row, the outcome five heads consecutively (HHHHH) is just as likely as four heads followed by a tail (HHHHT) and both have a probability of 1/32.
Very wrong title.
All the coin toss are independent of each other so the probability of losing or winning the toss was 1/2 only.