During the 15-year rule of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League from 2009 to 2024, India-Bangladesh relations have been a win-win situation for both. There was mutual cooperation in all spheres of national security. Bangladesh was an active participant in India’s Look East policy under the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation or BIMSTEC. Despite Bangladesh’s economic and military ties with China—the Bangladeshi military is predominantly equipped with Chinese weapons—Hasina did not compromise India’s interests. India-Bangladesh economic cooperation scaled new heights under her government. Except for the Teesta River water-sharing problem, amicable solutions were found for all other disputes including formalisation of land and maritime boundaries.
Unfortunately, this success led India’s national security establishment to commit the cardinal sin in international relations—become out of touch with the Bangladeshi public sentiment and burn its boats with the political opposition. As a result, the fall of the government and Hasina’s flight to India on 5 August came as a strategic surprise.
India failed to assess the extreme resentment among Bangladeshis against Hasina’s draconian authoritarianism, the allegedly rigged 2024 elections, virtual one-party rule, rising unemployment, and brutal crackdown on anti-reservation protests which spiralled into their “second liberation”. The people were also resentful of the neo-nationalistic Muslim bashing in India and indiscreet statements made by political and military leadership, laced with words like “lebensraum”, “termites”, and “ghuspethiye (intruders)”, presumably made against illegal immigrants, but which were perceived as a national insult by Bangladeshis.
Along with Hasina, India too has temporarily become a symbol of hate. I say temporarily because no regime in Bangladesh can afford India as an adversary due to geographic and economic compulsions, and power differential. The onus is on India to mend its fences with the interim and future governments and secure its strategic interests.
Heady mix of Islamic and cultural politics
In Bangladesh, there has been a constant conflict between religious and cultural nationalism. The military, apart from seizing power through coups for varying periods, acts as the permanent power broker. The constitution is unique—it pledges to conserve secularism in Article 12 but also declares Islam as the state religion in Article 2A.
Awami League, which has ruled for 24 years, carries the halo of the freedom struggle and is the flag bearer of secular cultural nationalism. It is anti-Pakistan and anti-fundamentalism. It cracked down upon fundamentalists and eliminated anti-India insurgent bases.
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), on the other hand, is ideologically an Islamic political party even though it claims to be secular. It is not a fundamentalist party, but it has been tolerant toward fundamentalists. It is pro-Pakistan to the extent of allowing the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to sponsor fundamentalists and anti-India insurgents.
Awami League and BNP have alternated in power over the last 40 years. Both Awami League and BNP have allied with the third player—the currently banned fundamentalist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI)—for political gains. JeI was part of the BNP-led coalition government during 2001-06 and has linkages with international Islamist organisations and their offshoots in India.
Military or quasi-military governments have ruled Bangladesh for 11 years. In the initial years of its rule, the military also gave prominence to religion and had an anti-India bias. Another peculiar feature of Bangladesh politics is that the victorious party not only forms the government but also captures the entire governance apparatus and institutions, including the job market.
All governments have faced public protests due to poor governance. Hasina was toppled by a student-led protest supported by the masses. The interim government is led by Nobel laureate Mohamed Yunus and has a fair representation of student leaders who have publicly displayed an inclination to form a new political party for better governance. Shades of the French Revolution can be seen here, but historically, student or youth-led movements have been invariably taken over by traditional political parties.
There has been endless speculation about the ‘foreign hand’ of the US, China, and Pakistan. Foreign intelligence agencies can play little or no role in popular student-led and public-supported mass agitations beyond funding. The real issue is what shape the future political dispensation takes.
The political situation is still evolving. Will Bangladesh politics follow the past trend, as highlighted above, now with an Islamic BNP government, or will a new economy and governance-oriented political dispensation emerge, only time will tell. India’s security concerns will be contingent on the shape of future politics in Bangladesh.
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Potential security threats to India
Bangladesh is surrounded from three sides by India and its access to the Bay of Bengal, until now, has been dominated by the Indian Navy. Its road and rail communications to the world pass through India. Both economies are also interlinked. Economically and militarily, India is a much stronger power and Bangladesh is conscious of its pivotal position in the region. This is evident from the stance of the interim government, the BNP, and even the JeI.
Due to their ongoing power play, both the US and China want Bangladesh to be part of their sphere of influence, for which India is the natural claimant. China has long been seeking a naval base in Bangladesh and there are enough indications of US too doing the same. No sovereign nation likes to lose its strategic autonomy and Bangladesh faces no security or economic compulsions to make this compromise. Chinese presence in Bangladesh will complete the encirclement of India. And even the presence of a friendly US would undermine India’s national interests.
Pakistan has been smarting under its defeat and dismemberment by India in 1971. It would like to make a back door entry—taking advantage of a friendly pro-Islamic government—to fund JeI and other fundamentalist organisations to start proxy wars in adjoining Indian states of Assam and West Bengal, which have a sizeable domicile and illegal immigrant Muslim population. This is a direct threat to India.
Whenever pro-Islamic parties come to power in Bangladesh and religion overrides culture, the fundamentalists are emboldened to target its eight per cent Hindu population. This also happens when anti-India sentiments are predominant. However, there has been no systematic state-supported targeting of the Hindu population since the birth of Bangladesh. In the last two weeks, despite anti-India sentiments being at their highest ever, in my view, there has been no organised targeting of Hindus. As per reports, five Hindus have been killed and over 200 properties attacked/vandalised, mostly for association with Awami League. However, the security of the Hindu population remains a national security concern for India.
In the past, some military-supported governments and the BNP have allowed anti-India insurgents to use Bangladesh as a safe haven. By 2017, the Awami League government had either eliminated or forced all such elements to flee. Even though only the runt of the insurgents is left in the Northeast, India needs to prevent the recreation of insurgent bases.
An unfriendly government in Bangladesh can scuttle India’s Look East policy, which has largely neutralised the effect of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. With the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in cold storage, any dilution of the BIMSEC programme will undermine India’s status as a regional and emerging world power.
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The way forward
There is an urgent need for India to overcome the inertia imposed by the shock of the recent events in Bangladesh. The sensitive issue of the protection of Hindus and other minorities has been diplomatically and publicly addressed at the highest level. The situation within Bangladesh is fast returning to normal. India needs to unleash all instruments of statecraft—diplomatic, economic, and soft/hard power—to ensure that Bangladesh remains a friendly and cooperative neighbour which does not impinge upon India’s national security interests.
It will take a minimum of six months, if not more, before elections are held and a new government comes to power. The interim period must be utilised to regain the confidence of Bangladeshis. Prime Minister Modi must use his well-known oratorical skills to assuage their hurt/anger in the Parliament and through other modes of messaging.
The BIMSTEC summit on 4 September in Thailand must be utilised for a meeting with Yunus, the Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government. Endeavours should also be made to have New Delhi be Yunus’ first foreign destination. Thereafter, a reciprocal visit by the Indian prime minister, primarily to win hearts and minds, could be considered.
During these visits, a liberal economic package can be announced. An earnest effort must also be made to fructify the Teesta water-sharing agreement. Once the people’s confidence is regained, it will be easier to deal with the newly-elected government. In view of the pivotal position of the Bangladesh Army, military diplomacy and cooperation must be given further impetus.
Make protection of minorities a red line for Bangladesh. On our part, ideology must not override national interests. Unless India is a role model, how can it expect an Islamic-majority nation to practice secularism? It must also be firmly conveyed to Bangladesh that it cannot allow acts of terrorism against India to be perpetrated by fundamentalists from its soil or shelter anti-India insurgents.
India needs to candidly put across to the US that the route to neutralise Chinese influence in Bangladesh lies through India. US investment in BIMSTEC projects will achieve this goal by default.
A time of crisis is also a time of opportunity for a new beginning. No government in Bangladesh can ignore India’s importance for its security and economic development or want to fritter away the gains from the last 15 years. For India, regaining the confidence of the people of Bangladesh is the key to safeguarding its national security interests.
Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (Retd) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post-retirement, he was a member of the Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)
One abiding pursuit of Indian diplomacy in South Asia should be to foster better people to people relationships. Supplementing government to government relations. The blockade of Nepal in 2015, on the eve of a harsh winter, as the country was recovering from a devastating earthquake. The India Out campaign in Maldives, a smaller edition in Bangladesh. Sometimes excessive closeness to an unpopular regime that is losing public legitimacy. Cultural and other ties with people which China cannot match.