New Delhi: Intense heat has gripped India. At least 50 people in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have died from heatstroke over the last few days. Even the stars and politicians aren’t spared. Bollywood actor Shah Rukh Khan had to be hospitalised for dehydration in Gujarat, and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari collapsed during an election rally in Maharashtra.
North and central India have been reeling under an intense heatwave since last week, with temperatures crossing the 50 degrees Celsius mark in many regions. This unprecedented heat has broken the 80-year record for temperatures.
Over the last week, this intense heat spell over northwest and central India has been making headlines. The season has also raised some pertinent questions regarding our preparedness to tackle the impacts of extreme temperatures, which are only expected to increase in the coming years. And that is why it is ThePrint’s Newsmaker of the Week.
On 29 May, the maximum temperatures in many parts of Delhi hovered around 49 degrees Celsius. The daytime temperature of 52.9 degrees Celsius recorded at one of India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) automated weather stations (AWS), Mungeshpur, shocked residents and forecasters alike.
The meteorological department later issued a statement calling the recording an “outlier compared to other stations” in the city. Scientists said that the sensors were being monitored for anomalies.
However, many other stations in the country also breached the 50 degrees Celsius mark on the same day. Churu in Rajasthan registered the highest temperature in India, reaching 50.5 degrees Celsius, followed by Sirsa in Haryana at 50.3 degrees Celsius.
According to IMD data, the maximum temperatures of around 37 cities across the country have remained above 45 degrees Celsius. Historical temperature records were also broken in many parts, with Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, Haryana, and Punjab being the worst impacted.
In Rajasthan, Phalodi recorded 50 degrees Celsius on two consecutive days last week. Other cities in the state also clocked 48-49 degrees Celsius in the last few days.
Heatwave-related deaths have also been reported in UP and Bihar.
Also read: Urbanisation behind 60% of warming trend in Indian cities, tier-2 towns in the east worst-affected
The El Niño spell
Weather experts explained that the entire northwest and central India is currently experiencing a dry spell. The lack of a western disturbance—weather systems that bring rainfall—which usually provides intermittent relief during the peak summer months of May and June, has aggravated the heat.
High temperatures for such prolonged periods can increase the heat stress of a region and cause deadly impacts. The situation is made worse in certain parts of India, which has been receiving consistent hot, dry winds from Sindh in Pakistan.
Besides local factors, global factors are also contributing to this year’s worsening weather conditions. This time, El Niño — a climate pattern that occurs when the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean near the equator become warmer than usual—is transitioning to neutral conditions. While making an exit, it tends to cause severe heat spells.
According to climate scientists, the extreme heat recordings globally attributed to the ongoing El Niño are expected to abate by August-September.
Slight relief before a warm June
Scientists from the IMD said that the heat conditions are expected to subside over the weekend, providing some relief to people. From Friday evening, impacts of a western disturbance will lower the daytime temperatures.
There is also a forecast of rain and thunderstorms in parts of northwest and central India.
But this relief will be temporary. According to the monthly forecast issued by the IMD, June is also likely to record abnormal maximum and minimum temperatures. It will also see more than usual heatwave days.
The only respite is likely in northwest and central India when the southwest monsoon hits the region. The monsoon already made its onset over Kerala on 30 May and is likely to progress to other parts of the country smoothly, according to forecasters.
IMD’s monsoon forecast says that most parts of India can expect “above normal to normal” rainfall activity this year, except for some parts of northeast India.
“La Niña conditions are likely to take over by mid-2024. This means that the rainfall activities during August and September—the latter part of the monsoon—are expected to be more,” M Mohapatra, director general of IMD told ThePrint.
El Niño and La Niña are two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. While El Niño is marked by warmer ocean temperatures, La Niña refers to a cooling period.
Global heating trends
The extreme heat being recorded in India is not unique. Temperature records are being broken in many parts of the world.
A recent report by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international team of leading climate scientists, highlighted that in South Asia, extreme heatwaves in April—with temperatures rising beyond 40 degrees Celsius—are 45 times more likely in the coming years. The report also highlighted that these events will become 0.85 degrees Celsius warmer because of climate change.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, explained that temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius are quickly becoming the new normal in most parts of India. Human-induced climate change could be a contributing factor.
“We are now seeing that the deviation from normal temperatures is widening every year. But there will be a time when these temperatures will become the new normal. Cities have to be made more resilient and people need to be prepared for this future,” he added.