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India-Italy ties went from strained to strategic. Now, it’s time to realise the potential

The dynamic relationship between Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Meloni has injected fresh vitality into bilateral ties, transforming geopolitical challenges into opportunities.

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India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar recently embarked on a three-day visit to Italy, where he participated in the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. Besides engaging with key global leaders, including the outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Jaishankar prioritised strengthening India-Italy bilateral relations. One of the highlights of his visit was the inauguration of the new Indian Embassy premises in Rome.

The relationship, once strained, began improving significantly when Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte visited India in 2018. This trip laid the groundwork for enhanced cooperation, culminating in the launch of the first action plan for enhanced partnership (2020–2024). The collaboration reached new heights in October 2021, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Italy and announced that the countries’ bilateral ties would be upgraded to a strategic partnership. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reciprocated with her visit to India in March 2023, where she was the chief guest at the 8th Raisina Dialogue.

Under India’s G20 presidency in 2023, two significant developments bolstered bilateral ties. Italy joined the Biofuel Alliance and became a signatory to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).

Jaishankar’s recent visit to Italy for the G7 meeting presented a timely opportunity to discuss the newly signed Joint Strategic Action Plan (2025–2029), which focuses on collaboration in critical areas such as defence, trade, energy, and space. The plan reflects a strategic alignment between the two nations, and was signed during a virtual G20 summit under Brazil’s presidency. There are two main verticals in the many areas of convergence agreed upon— trade and connectivity, and security and defence.

Bilateral trade between the two countries is valued at approximately €15 billion, with India enjoying an export advantage. Italy is India’s 18th largest investor, having contributed a cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of $3.53 billion from 2000 to 2023. In contrast, Indian investments in Italy are relatively modest, totalling around $400 million.

Italy’s strategic location in the Mediterranean positions it as a key partner in enhancing connectivity between India and Europe. India’s push for greater involvement in the region aligns with its broader goal of diversifying trade routes and building resilience in its export pathways. The announcement of the IMEC corridor underscores the shared commitment to improving connectivity, though the project faces challenges due to the unstable security situation in the Middle East. Nevertheless, efforts to strengthen the India-Europe trade corridor must continue, with Italy playing a pivotal role.

Maritime connectivity and strategic ports

Europe’s gradual move to de-risk from China is unfolding despite differences among its member states. A notable aspect of this shift is the strategic importance of the port of Trieste, which serves as a key gateway to Central and Eastern European markets. By investing in Trieste, India could secure substantial commercial benefits while reinforcing Italy’s commitment to India following its withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Italy is the only G7 nation to have joined the BRI, only to exit. This demonstrates its recognition of the risks tied to economic over-reliance on China, whose trade relationships are often heavily skewed in Beijing’s favour.

January 2024 assessment underscores the Trieste dock’s economic significance, noting a contribution of approximately €756 millionto the local economy, with an annual production value of €1.9 billion. Beyond these figures, the port’s strategic value lies in its ability to connect diverse international trade routes, attracting traffic that might otherwise be routed through foreign ports. This makes Trieste a critical asset in global commerce.

Trieste’s potential as a strategic port is comparable to Thessaloniki in Greece, a port India should consider developing as an alternative to Piraeus. Piraeus, a Greek port controlled by China’s COSCO shipping corporation, exemplifies the risks of over-reliance on Beijing, which was evident particularly during Greece’s 2009 financial crisis. By focusing on Trieste and Thessaloniki, India can avoid Chinese influence while gaining access to Central and Eastern European markets, collectively boasting a GDP of over $1 trillion.

India’s strategic push into the Mediterranean is further strengthened by its robust relationships with countries along the Mediterranean arc. India has long-standing ties with Cyprus and has recently deepened its engagement with Greece. The Adriatic Sea, situated between Greece and Italy, is flanked by Balkan nations such as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro. India’s recent diplomatic outreach to the Balkans, led by Jaishankar underscores its commitment to expanding its presence in this vital region.

France is another cornerstone of India’s European strategy. Despite already strong ties with Paris, India continues to seek new areas of cooperation, exemplified by the decision to open a new consulate in Marseilles, a key maritime hub. Meanwhile, Spain, an important defence partner, offers untapped economic potential, signalling opportunities for future growth in bilateral ties.

India’s growing presence and investments in these Mediterranean countries are crucial to the eventual realisation of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. Strengthening these ties ensures that India remains well-positioned to benefit from this vital trade and connectivity initiative when geopolitical conditions allow.


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Defence cooperation

A significant milestone in India-Italy defence relations occurred during a virtual summit in 2020 between President Giuseppe Conte and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At this summit, Fincantieri, a leading Italian defence and shipbuilding giant, signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Cochin Shipyard Ltd to collaborate on ship design, manufacturing, and repair/refit services. This marked a critical step in fostering stronger defence ties between the two nations.

Both countries acted swiftly to resolve past differences and lay the groundwork for deeper defence cooperation. In October 2023, Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh signed a comprehensive defence cooperation agreement with his Italian counterpart Guido Crosetto during a visit to Rome. This agreement focuses on key areas such as security policy, research and development, and industrial collaboration, signalling the beginning of a new phase in defence engagement between the two nations.

A major boost to this partnership could come from Italian companies investing in India’s defence industrial corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, being developed by the state governments in collaboration with the Ministry of Defence. Timely investments from Italy and other European partners in these corridors could play a pivotal role in advancing India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative. By contributing to the local production and value addition of a broad spectrum of defence equipment, these investments would significantly strengthen  India’s defence manufacturing capabilities.


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Italy’s role in the Indo-Pacific & Africa

Unlike many key European nations, Italy lacks a formal Indo-Pacific strategy and is often characterised as having an “invisible presence” in the region. Despite this, the country’s increasing engagement with India indicates significant potential for greater cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

Notably, Italy has aligned itself with one of the core pillars of India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI), which is focused on science, technology, and academic cooperation. India’s role as a bridge between Italy and other regional powers uniquely positions it to facilitate trilateral or multilateral collaborations.

A prime example is the potential collaboration between India, Italy, and France in Africa, where Rome and Paris traditionally compete for influence. Both countries are members of the International Solar Alliance, offering yet another avenue for India’s geopolitical convergence in third countries.

Additionally, the trilateral framework involving India, Italy, and Japan presents a promising platform for strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific. However, this trilateral grouping, despite its potential, has not met frequently since its inception and has yet to capitalise on the shared vision of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific among its members.

The evolution of India-Italy relations has been remarkably swift, propelled by strong political will on both sides. The dynamic relationship between Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Meloni has injected fresh vitality into bilateral ties, transforming geopolitical challenges into opportunities. The key challenge now lies in ensuring that the agreed-upon initiatives are implemented efficiently, both in terms of cost and time, to fully realise the potential of this deepening partnership.

The writer is a geopolitics analyst and author. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)

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