The massive victory of Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his leftist political party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or JVP, marks a paradigm shift in Sri Lankan politics. The new president is not new to politics and is keen to strengthen India-Sri Lanka relations. After his visit to India in February, he acknowledged the support that New Delhi extended to Colombo by supplying food and medicine during the Sri Lankan economic crisis. During the election campaign, he emphasised that Sri Lanka’s land, sea, and airspace would not be used against India’s security interests.
Earlier, right-of-centre governments in Colombo tried to tilt towards China in exchange for substantial investments in infrastructure, much of which turned out to be a debt trap—an albatross around their necks. The result was disastrous for Sri Lanka and seriously jeopardised India’s security interests in the process. With a pro-Marxist party in power now, India has every reason to be apprehensive about its actions, notwithstanding assurances to the contrary from President Dissanayake.
The JVP is also perceived to harbour groups within its party that are avowedly anti-Tamil. Any conflict between Tamil groups and Colombo could incite and revive pre-2009 type agitation in Tamil Nadu by the pro-LTTE outfits, activists and certain elements from the DMK and AIADMK seeking to leverage such issues to remain relevant in politics. This situation could lead to domestic security problems for the central government and its conduct of foreign policy independent of compulsions of coalition politics. President Dissanayake must tread cautiously when dealing with sensitive issues that impact India’s security and strategic interests.
Key points:
- Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s JVP party wins Sri Lankan election, marking a significant political shift.
- New government faces urgent challenges: economic recovery, domestic stability, foreign policy, and Tamil reconciliation.
- Sri Lanka’s economic crisis stemmed from Chinese debt and led to IMF intervention and Indian assistance.
- The new administration must balance economic revival with addressing long-standing ethnic and political issues.
While Sri Lanka’s new government faces an unending list of problems, there are four issues that President Dissanayake must urgently address: the economy, domestic peace and political stability, foreign policy, and reconciliation with the Tamil minorities. This is easier said than done, considering the legacy issues and the chequered past of conflicts and unrest, such as the Aragalaya movement.
After the debt-ridden economy nosedived in 2022, popular anger against the government erupted into street protests, increasing the woes of ordinary citizens who had to queue for daily necessities and even life-saving medicine. There was a total constitutional collapse that led to the fall of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government. Although the succeeding dispensation headed by Ranil Wickremasinghe tried its best to restore stability and peace, economic troubles and widespread anger over elitism in governance persisted. The ensuing elections gave the masses an opportunity to vent their anger and elect a government capable of pressing the reset button and stopping the economic slide.
Also read: ‘Pro-China’, but getting closer to India. What Dissanayake’s victory in Sri Lanka means for Delhi
A job at hand
While the Tamil issue has historically dominated the political narrative in Sri Lanka, the economy became a serious concern in 2022, mainly due to China’s debt-trap policy. Beijing improved its ties with Colombo during the last phase of the civil strife by supplying military hardware to the Sri Lankan army and opposing UN resolutions that called for indicting the island nation, extracting commercial contracts and projects like the Hambantota Port in return. Unable to repay the loan or even service the debt, Sri Lanka converted part of the debt into equity, handing over Hambantota to China Port Holdings. By around 2017, Colombo was spending nearly 83 percent of its revenues on debt repayment, with external interest repayments doubling from about $2 billion to $4.2 billion by 2022.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) came to Sri Lanka’s rescue but imposed tough austerity conditions, making the Wickremasinghe government very unpopular after negotiating the release of the third tranche of the $2.9 billion facility. This disbursement of around $360 million, previously put on hold due to elections, is likely to be released once the new government begins negotiations. Colombo received a huge relief from New Delhi’s assistance, totalling $4 billion during this crisis. There is a consensus among all political parties regarding the timely assistance provided by India.
President Dissanayake’s pro-Sinhala stance may encourage some party colleagues to take a hard line against devolving power to the North, which was the epicentre of Sri Lanka’s worst civil strife. The Rajapaksa government decisively handled the final days of the conflict, completely eliminating the separatist LTTE, albeit at a high cost of civilian casualties, which drew the wrath of several Western governments. The Vaddakin Vasantham (Spring in the North) project, part of the reconciliation process, worked well for some time and reduced hostility from Tamil groups toward Colombo. During the run-up to the election, Ranil Wickremasinghe had promised to implement the 13th Amendment to the Constitution. The JVP remained silent on this issue, likely because it did not want to antagonise party members and voters uncomfortable with the idea of devolving powers to the North. However, the new dispensation should approach the issue of devolution and strengthening federalism as a positive socio-economic building block rather than a necessary evil.
The JVP, infamous for its involvement in two major insurgencies in 1971 and 1987, is now part of Sri Lanka’s multi-party parliamentary democratic process. With elections to Parliament scheduled for November, the political narrative must be positive and less acrimonious. The general election may result in a fractured mandate, but this should not hinder the economic revival process in a presidential system of governance. Ideologies and differences among religious denominations have taken a back seat in Sri Lanka in the face of an acute economic crisis that has affected both the rich and the poor. President Dissanayake can bring the economy back on the rails by avoiding profligacy and steering clear of debt traps with ambitious white elephant projects. The current leadership seems aware that with authority comes responsibility.
Seshadri Chari is the former editor of ‘Organiser’. He tweets @seshadrichari. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prashant)