The ceasefire in Gaza is largely holding on, although it has been disrupted by Israel repeatedly targeting civilians in Gaza, as well as reported attacks on Israeli soldiers by Hamas. The ceasefire agreement, which came into effect on 10 October, has so far been successful in achieving its initial objectives.
All living hostages have been returned to Israel, a primary condition set for any ceasefire to be implemented. Humanitarian aid in the form of food, water, medicines, and fuel has started trickling in through the UN agencies, although not in the numbers required to address the dire humanitarian crisis.
Hundreds and thousands of families are slowly returning to their destroyed homes to pick up the threads of their lives once again. And they hope that the nightmare of death and destruction will never be repeated.
First steps
The ceasefire came about as a result of US President Donald Trump’s ‘20 Point Peace Plan’, announced on 29 September. It offered an ambitious roadmap toward a lasting solution, starting with an early ceasefire and an immediate return of hostages. However, there were fears and apprehensions that the plan would crumble like other ceasefire proposals in the past.
The prevalent idea was that the plan would be too daunting for Hamas since it posed an existential crisis for the group. It also gave Israel the full freedom to re-enter Gaza on the slightest pretext of a ceasefire violation. However, with Hamas agreeing to release all living hostages in one go, a key element of Israel’s demands was met, leading to the go-ahead.
In the first month of the ceasefire, many of the immediate objectives have been met. These include the pulling back of Israeli forces to a designated ‘yellow line’ in Gaza and a cessation of Israeli air and artillery strikes and ground operations. The bodies of deceased hostages are being handed over to Israel by Hamas.
However, the future progress of the peace plan hinges on three vital components. The establishment of the International Stabilisation Force (ISF), the demilitarisation of Gaza and disarming of Hamas, and the establishment of a technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee. The committee is to be composed of qualified Palestinians and international experts, with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the ‘Board of Peace’, which will be chaired by Trump. Each of these three steps poses different challenges. But for the peace plan to have any chance of success, they must be implemented.
Fortunately, there is some forward movement. The US has prepared a draft resolution for the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), which will could approve a two-year mandate for a transitional governance body and the ISF in Gaza. The draft is being shared with the 10 elected members of the UNSC. In addition, the representatives for Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE are likely to join the US in a show of regional support for the proposal. For the resolution to be adopted, it needs at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by Russia, China, the UK, or France. An endorsement from the UNSC will add greater legitimacy to the draft plan.
On 24 October, Palestine’s main political factions gathered in Cairo to discuss the administration of Gaza by an independent committee of technocrats. Eight such factions, including Fatah and Hamas (both bitter rivals), are holding closed-door discussions on options for future governance of Gaza. Whether Hamas could play a role in shaping a postwar administration is a key question, despite Israel’s clear condition for peace, stating that the group cannot have any political role in Gaza.
Egyptian foreign minister Badr Abdelatty sounded optimistic of a favourable and acceptable outcome. “The main objective is to empower the Palestinians, including the Palestinian Authority, to be able to run Gaza as an integral part of the West Bank and as a step for the realization of the Palestinian state,” he said.
He added that the committee “will be entrusted with running the daily life of the Palestinians, and the policemen will be entrusted with the issue of law enforcement and the security of Gaza.”
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Where does India stand?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi skipped the high-profile Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh on 13 October, where President Trump announced a new rebuilding of Gaza. India was represented by Minister of State for External Affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh. Although no clear reason was given for Modi’s absence, most observers linked it to the tariff war with the US and Trump’s continued insistence that it was he who stopped the India–Pakistan conflict in May.
A few things stand out with regard to India’s role in Gaza:
- India was among the first countries to welcome Trump’s peace plan, as well as the ceasefire in Gaza.
- If there is any country trusted on both ends of the spectrum in Gaza, it is India. While some Arab and Muslim countries are mistrusted by Israel, any Western influence or participation is doubted by the Palestinians.
- The Indian Army has years of experience in operating in UN missions across Israel’s borders: the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan Heights bordering Syria.
- A UN mandate for the ISF in Gaza will remove any principled hurdles in India’s way of contributing to the force.
India has huge stakes in the peace process in the Middle East, as it looks to expand trade and security ties not only with the region but even beyond it to Europe. One of the key projects that could transform India’s growth outlook is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a transformative project that was announced at the G20 Summit in Delhi in September 2023. However, the conflict in Gaza stalled the project. As peace slowly takes shape in Gaza, it would be in India’s interest to be ‘inside’ rather than ‘outside’ the process.
Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar’s visit to New Delhi on 4 November is important in this context. During the visit, India and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding on advanced cooperation in defence equipment and technology, but equally important was the discussion on peace in Gaza.
Speaking at a media event after the official talks, Sa’ar hinted at India’s role in the process. “It’s a stage-by-stage plan, realistic and implementable. India, as a world leader, has a key role in ensuring it remains on track,” he said.
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Looking ahead
The fact that the peace process is slowly taking shape in Gaza is an encouraging sign. The draft proposal for ISF in the UNSC and the Palestinian factions working on a governance model add to the hope. For India, which is viewed positively in the region, this is an opportunity that cannot be allowed to slip away.
In fact, New Delhi should be one of the crucial stakeholders to lobby with Russia and China to see that the ISF proposal passes in the UNSC. This will open avenues to contribute to the stabilisation force under the UN flag and ensure that India remains on the ‘inside’ of the peace process.
Col Rajeev Agarwal (Retd) is a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation. His X handle is @rajeev1421. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)