The US is fully involved in the three major confrontations taking place in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Indo-Pacific. This scale of involvement would probably impact its ability to deal with the major geopolitical confrontation with China. With no end in sight for the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the US faces an uphill challenge. This factor should inform India’s statecraft in dealing with heightened global geopolitical turbulence.
The Ukraine war
The clouds of potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its 31st month, have perennially hovered over the European and global geopolitical landscape. So far, the war has escalated both in terms of intensity and geographically.
Ukraine has been appealing to the US about being permitted to attack Russia with long-range weapons. This issue was also raised by the British Prime Minister, during his recent visit. If approved, such a move would in practice be an escalatory deviation from the existing policy of largely confining the provision of weapons systems to Ukraine for defensive purposes.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that such a move would “mean that NATO countries, the U.S. and European countries are at war with Russia.” He added that “bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created for us.”
At the commencement of the Russian invasion in February 2024, Putin issued nuclear threats, which perhaps ensured that military assistance provided by the US and its allies would be gradual. Several separate, delayed decisions were undertaken to supply rockets, tanks, missiles, and aircraft. These slow but successive moves have so far not triggered any major Russian response.
The White House spokesperson said on 14 September that there has been no change in Biden’s opposition to letting Ukraine use missiles to strike deep inside Russia. In any case, the US seems unlikely to shift its policy in a hurry, considering the upcoming presidential elections and the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine war spreading geographically.
As far as geographic escalation is concerned, Russia found itself at the receiving end when Ukraine launched an offensive in Kursk on 6 August, claiming nearly 1,000 square kilometres, capturing hundreds of prisoners, and displacing over 1 lakh civilians. As of this writing, Russia has launched counter-offensives but the progress has been slow.
The Ukrainian invasion has not impacted the ongoing Russian offensive in Donbas, as was probably Ukraine’s expectation. In terms of the air war, Ukraine continues to increase its drone attacks, sometimes reaching deep into Russia. It is likely that Ukraine will intensify such attacks, given reports of its efforts to enhance domestic drone manufacturing. Ironically, Russia has had to rely on Iran and North Korea for drones and missiles.
An end to the Russia-Ukraine war is not in sight, because both sides remain determined to continue fighting. For Ukraine, the stakes involve maintaining territorial integrity and securing NATO protection. For Russia, the war is about preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and, at the very least, ensuring that it remains neutral.
Also read: India has a global reputation for unbiased, credible statistical surveys. That’s at risk now
The Gaza war
The escalatory dynamics of the Israel-Hamas war have remained more or less the same from its peak in early 2023. The intensity of Israel’s invasion of Gaza has continued despite the humanitarian tragedy unleashed by it. Hamas has been severely mauled but continues to pose a challenge to Israel. Geographically, the war has spread to the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the international waterways of the Red Sea and the Bab el–Mandeb Strait.
Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran on 31 July marked a high point, which bore the potential of escalation. However, Iran has not reacted as expected and predictions of the geographical expansion of the war in Gaza have thus far not come to pass.
Hezbollah continues to up the ante with Israel and there has been a continuous exchange of firepower between the two sides. The Houthis have also continued to interdict ships in the Red Sea. Israel has carried out air strikes on the Houthis but this has not prevented interdiction activities.
Negotiations between Hamas and Israel have made no headway, and there seems to be little hope on the horizon for the war to end. Worse, there appears to be little prospect of Israel completely eliminating Hamas. The likelihood of Hamas re-emerging has only increased, although it might take some time.
The Palestinians who were politically divided between Hamas and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in the West Bank have been driven closer and could pose a greater threat to Israel in the course of time. At the global level, one may expect Israel’s actions to breed extremism further stimulated by hatred against the West.
Also read: India’s higher education system needs to level up. A third pillar of experts can help
The Indo-Pacific
There has been a steady increase in low-level military confrontations in the South China Sea and surrounding areas of China’s eastern seaboard, including Taiwan. The confrontations have been mainly between China and neighbouring countries like Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. All these countries have been driven to seek cover from the US, either through treaty arrangements or strategic partnerships.
Both China and the US have avoided direct confrontation. After a break in communications pursuant to the Nancy Pelosi visit to Taiwan in 2022 and following an understanding between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the US-China Summit in November 2023, military-to-military communications were restored. This was a clear signal that both sides realised the dangers of incidents spiralling out of control. It was an acceptance that neither side desired escalation.
Overall, while China’s pressure on smaller neighbouring countries has increased, there is greater sensitivity in both China and the US to avoid direct confrontation.
The escalatory dynamics of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza reflect common factors inherent in military conflicts. In essence, they illustrate the growing tension between political rationale and the forces unleashed by military systems. Neither side in these conflicts would prefer escalation or direct confrontation. In Ukraine, it is US-Russia; in Gaza, it is US-Iran; and in the Indo-Pacific, it is US-China. The escalation in both intensity and geographic scope is influenced, though not solely determined, by the political rationality of the involved parties, which is primarily anchored in self-preservation.
Also read: The fight to revive story of Goa’s son Faria also defines its place in India today
US presidential elections
It remains to be seen how the results of the US presidential elections will impact the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and the confrontations in the Indo-Pacific.
The election results could impact the Ukraine war. This is no longer in doubt, as Democrats and Republicans have widely differing views on the subject. If Donald Trump wins, Ukraine might be thrown under the bus and NATO’s cohesiveness might be endangered. If Kamala Harris wins, escalation is possible and peace talks may result out of exhaustion from both sides.
The impact of the presidential elections on the Israel-Hamas war, unlike the Russia-Ukraine war, could be marginal because of the clout the Jewish lobby has in the US.
A Trump administration could take a strong stand against China, both in the geoeconomics and geopolitical dimensions. Even Biden has ensured the continuance of Trump’s earlier policy and a new Democratic government could do the same. The US would like to concentrate its efforts on dealing with China but is not able to do so because of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Within the context of the ongoing global geopolitical contestation between the West and China, keeping the US engaged in Ukraine would benefit China in the long run. This, along with a prolonged war in Gaza, could lead to China emerging as a net beneficiary on the Indo-Pacific front.
India, on the other hand, would prefer that US commitments to Ukraine and Israel be scaled down so Washington can better concentrate on the Indo-Pacific. This factor should inform and weigh heavily in the conduct of statecraft by India as it navigates the increasingly turbulent global geopolitical tensions.
Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (retd) is Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Takshashila Institution; former military adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweets @prakashmenon51. Views are personal.
(Edited by Prasanna Bachchhav)