New Delhi: India’s population is expected to remain the world’s largest throughout the century and is projected to peak at roughly 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before dropping by 12 percent, according to a report titled ‘World Population Prospects 2024’, released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) last week.
According to the report, the population of 126 countries, including India, is expected to grow through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.
India, which surpassed China’s population size in April last year and became the world’s most populous country, will continue to hold this position through 2100. In contrast, China reached its population peak this year and will likely experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054 (204 million), says the report.
India’s population figures have become a matter of contention due to a more-than-three-year delay in conducting the census. The last census was conducted in 2011, and there has been very little clarity from the Registrar General of India (RGI) on the next one.
The Opposition has criticised the Narendra Modi government for delaying the decadal census, which was initially scheduled for 2021. The delay was initially attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, even with the formation of the new government, the RGI has yet to issue any fresh notifications in this regard.
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Key findings from the UN report
The UN report notes that India is among the 126 countries that are in the intermediate stage of the transition—when fertility levels have started to decline but remain above the replacement level. This is the level needed for a population to remain stable over the long term (excluding migration), where each generation is succeeded by another of approximately the same size.
Fertility levels above replacement are projected to contribute over one-fifth of the population increase in countries where the population is expected to continue growing through 2054.
In 2023, child deaths under age 5 dropped below 5 million for the first time in recent history. Despite this achievement, high levels of preventable child mortality persist in many regions, with 95 percent of these deaths occurring in 126 countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, the report suggests.
Most of these rapidly growing countries, including India, are low-income and have had minimal consumption of material resources and greenhouse gas emissions.
Navigating the balance between future environmental impacts and the needs of growing populations will be one of the key challenges these countries will face, as the economic processes that lead to higher standards of living often result in environmental damage, the report adds.
Siya Gupta is an intern with ThePrint
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