IMD forecasts ‘slight but not significant delay’ in arrival of Southwest Monsoon this year

In its latest forecast, IMD says that monsoon will arrive on 4 June — four days later than usual. Monsoon usually arrives in Kerala by 1 June and lasts up to September.

Representational photo of the monsoon in India | ANI

New Delhi: The Southwest Monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on 4 June — four days later than normal — the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced Tuesday. 

The Southwest Monsoon, which irrigates over half of India’s agricultural land and is considered to be a driving force of the Indian economy, is usually arrives in Kerala on 1 June, and lasts up to September.

In a statement issued Tuesday, the IMD said the monsoon would hit Kerala on 4 June, with a “model error of plus or minus days”, adding: “Southwest Monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days.”

The last 5 years has seen a slight variation of the monsoon’s onset. In 2018 and 2022, it arrived on 29 May, while in 2019 it arrived on 8 June. 

“This is not a significant delay, and does not have any bearing on the rainfall during the monsoon season,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told ThePrint over the phone. 

Mohapatra added that the severe cyclonic storm Mocha, which made a landfall in Myanmar on 14 May, has not influenced the forecasted monsoon arrival.

Last month, the IMD had forecast monsoon over the country as a whole to be within the “normal” range, falling within 96 per cent of the Long Term Average (LPA) of 87 centimeters. 

This is contrary to private forecaster Skymet Weather’s forecast, which says the monsoon could be “below normal”, with rainfall within 94 per cent of the LPA.  

The formation of an El Nino, a climate phenomenon known to adversely affect the Indian monsoon, is likely to set in later this year and could influence the latter half of the monsoon, Mohapatra had said addressing a press conference.

The IMD is likely to issue a more detailed seasonal forecast for the monsoon in the weeks to come.

Rainfall in NE, dust storms in northwest, central India

In its daily forecast, the IMD said the northeast region would see rainfall over the next five days, while northwest and central India will experience dust storms and dust raising winds. 

Temperatures are set to rise by another 2-3 degrees after 18 May over northwest and central India, where maximum temperatures have already breached 40 degrees. 

Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to see severe heatwave conditions over the next two days, while Odisha, coastal West Bengal, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Tamil Nadu will experience “hot and uncomfortable weather” because of rising temperatures and humidity, the IMD has forecasted.

(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)