“Lowy projects India will reach 40% of China’s economic output by 2030, compared with the 50% estimate last year.”
This is using PPP adjustment of GDP. While PPP adjustment for GDP per capita is useful to take into account the cost of living and make comparisons of quality of life between countries more accurate, PPP adjustment for aggregate GDP doesn’t make sense. Comparisons of aggregate GDP is a comparison of national power. A country does not import oil or arms using PPP adjusted dollars, so nominal GDP is more suitable.
In 2019, China had a GDP of $14.3 trillion while India was $2.9 trillion.
In 2010, China had a GDP of $6.1 trillion while India was $1.7 trillion.
If China manages to double its GDP by 2030 to $28 trillion and India grows moderately and reaches $5 trillion, then actually the Chinese economy will be almost 6x larger by 2030. India should assess a range of hard figures before deciding its a good strategy to adopt a confrontation posture against China.
Ha!! Ha!! Projections & statistics can be made to tell any any story!! And even if these projections were to come true, no one could bet that in 20-30 years from now, China will be as powerful as today!!
“Lowy projects India will reach 40% of China’s economic output by 2030, compared with the 50% estimate last year.”
This is using PPP adjustment of GDP. While PPP adjustment for GDP per capita is useful to take into account the cost of living and make comparisons of quality of life between countries more accurate, PPP adjustment for aggregate GDP doesn’t make sense. Comparisons of aggregate GDP is a comparison of national power. A country does not import oil or arms using PPP adjusted dollars, so nominal GDP is more suitable.
In 2019, China had a GDP of $14.3 trillion while India was $2.9 trillion.
In 2010, China had a GDP of $6.1 trillion while India was $1.7 trillion.
If China manages to double its GDP by 2030 to $28 trillion and India grows moderately and reaches $5 trillion, then actually the Chinese economy will be almost 6x larger by 2030. India should assess a range of hard figures before deciding its a good strategy to adopt a confrontation posture against China.
Ha!! Ha!! Projections & statistics can be made to tell any any story!! And even if these projections were to come true, no one could bet that in 20-30 years from now, China will be as powerful as today!!