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A crystal gaze into UP Politics is so tempting, even more so, when the elections are less than an year away. 

Much has been written about how Yogi became the CM in 2017. Many say he was Modi’s choice, others say he was RSS choice hoisted on Modi. Before being appointed as CM, Yogi had not held any ministerial berth and was considered extreme Right Wing, even by Sangh Parivar standards. So, his elevation was surely a surprise.

 Till Covid 2 came along, the BJP Central Leadership and the support base considered him to be quite a successful CM. His hard nosed no nonsense handling of the law and order situation won him tremendous popularity amongst the common folks, who were sick and tired of the erstwhile SP/ BSP era lawlessness buoyed by political patronage to Muslim and Yadav mafias. He ruled with a heavy hand, had scant regard for other lawmakers (including those from BJP) and kept asserting himself through his selected Bureaucrats and Police officers. As far as the State administration goes, he held his ground unapologetically,  followed his own agenda, even in the face of many indirect rebukes from BJP HQs. The BJP tolerated all this due to electoral requirements. Many of these Hindutva Stars are genies seemingly out of Modi’s control. Pragya Thakur got away praising Godse while Modi could only whimper in protest. Tejasvi Surya cocked a snook at Yeddyurappa either with or without Modi Shah’s blessings. Yogi is the biggest superstar of them all. Slowly but surely, Yogi had started challenging Amit Shah as BJP’s Number 2.

Covid 2 changed all that. UP was devastated. The state machinery collapsed. The rural urban, rich poor, and all other divides blurred in the face of the sheer magnitude of the crisis. Deaths were out of control. The administration looked totally clueless and the same was further amplified by the sheer incompetence, heartless callousness and pathological denial by the Govt machinery. As Yogi got more and more overwhelmed by the situation, he kept looking for excuses and scapegoats. While the whole world watched in horror at the dance of death, Yogi and his personal army of trolls continued to brow beat any criticism. Common citizens who walked upto a Police Station or a Govt Office as a victim / complainant, came back as accused. Finally, BJP HQs could muster up the courage to tell Yogi that UP Govt was embarrassing India by its incompetence and it was time to act. The humiliation of the panchayat polls twisted the knife further, and prompted the Central Leadership to start thinking about a leadership change. AK Sharma, a trusted Bureaucrat turned politician from the Modi camp, was sent to UP and sworn in as an MLC. Modi made Sharma in charge of Varanasi Pandemic Management. Yogi didn’t like it but half cremated bodies floating down the Ganges had forced Modi’s hands. 

This is when Yogi showed his true mettle. Instead of working towards a solution, he hit back. He went to Delhi and told the Top Two that he had no intention to resign. In case the the Party wanted to remove him, he takes no guarantee about the electoral fall out during the next polls. For the first time in his rule, Modi dithered. Neither he nor Amit Shah were confident enough to call Yogi’s bluff. Yogi allowed AK Sharma only to become State Party Vice President, an irrelevant appointment. BJP Central Leadership had no choice but to gulp this humiliation.

In the internal BJP pow wows today, it’s clearly advantage Yogi, at least, till the UP Assembly Elections.

Seeing the power play within BJP, it’s a sense of deja vu. 

What Modi did to Vajpayee and Advani, Yogi is attempting the same to Modi and Shah. There are a lot of similarities in the way it’s playing out. RSS supported Modi then and is supporting Yogi now. Modi was considered a hardliner compared to Vajpayee and Advani. Now Yogi is considered a hardliner compared to Modi and Shah. 

BJP is worried about the state elections but have decided to go with Yogi. They are hoping that Yogi’s poor governance won’t matter and yet again, Mandir, Cow, etc will play supreme. 

If BJP wins by a narrow margin, Yogi will be cut to size and in case BJP needs an alliance to rule, Yogi may even be removed. Amit Shah can then heave a sigh of relief and go back to being the Modi’s heir apparent. If they win big, Yogi will stake his claim at the National level in post Modi era.

And what if BJP loses UP Assembly Elections? Well, that’s not happening, at least not in 2022.


Also read: UP polls could see BJP allies split the important Nishad vote, hurt party’s bid to return


These pieces are being published as they have been received – they have not been edited/fact-checked by ThePrint.