New Delhi: One of the unstated goals of US policies towards Iran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution has been to seek regime change in Tehran.
Exactly four decades after the Islamic Revolution that toppled the West-leaning Shah regime, anti-establishment Iranians are on the streets protesting and demanding a similar regime change. This time, it is the effect of sanctions by the Trump administration’s that is stoking public anger.
The US has had a long history of interfering in Iran’s domestic politics, most prominently in 1953 through a CIA-backed coup. But the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended the US’ hold over Iran.
The new leadership, headed by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, has been hostile towards the West, specifically the US. Since then, successive US administrations have wanted a more friendly leadership in Tehran.
The demonstrations erupted after the country’s government decided on 15 November to hike petrol prices by as much as 50 per cent. The country is already suffering economically due to stiff sanctions imposed by the US after Washington, under the Trump administration, decided to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal.
An Iranian official recently claimed that over two lakh people had joined the protests. The government used its iron fist to respond to the growing “chaos”, and, according to Amnesty International, more than 140 people have been killed in the past two weeks.
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Protests this time are ‘different’
Over the past two decades, agitations have been a recurring feature in quasi-authoritarian Iran. Major protests took place in 2003, 2009, 2011 and 2017. But most Iranian observers have claimed that this time “it’s different”.
Protests were earlier limited to the capital city of Tehran. But the latest agitation has been more widespread and features a “wider spectrum of society”. Violent unrest has been seen in major cities such as Tabriz, Mashhad, Isfahan and Shiraz.
“During the protests in 2009, the main slogan was ‘where is my vote?’ This time we’re hearing loud chants of ‘death to Khamenei’ (Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei). That tells you all you need to know about the evolution of discontent,” writes Jason Rezaian, an Iranian-American journalist, in a Washington Post opinion piece dated 18 November.
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Economic recession in Iran following US sanctions
Even though it is said that the impact was unintended, Washington’s policies under US President Donald Trump have led to Iran’s most intense protests in decades.
The economic sanctions imposed by the US have thrown Iran into a deep financial crisis. The sanctions, also observed by other major powers, have ensured that Iran is no longer able to export enough crude oil. According to the World Bank, the country’s economy is set to contract by 8.7 per cent this year.
An ongoing economic slump and a sudden increase in petrol prices, therefore, translated into Iranians questioning the country’s political status quo.
“The battle over Iran’s budget, including tough austerity measures, has widened into a larger fight over the state’s legitimacy. Protesters have burned and defaced state symbols, including images of Khamenei, and chanted anti-government slogans,” Rezaian wrote in the Washington Post opinion piece.
Iran’s power structure
In 1989, 10 years after the Islamic Revolution, when Khamenei became the supreme leader of Iran, he made a political arrangement with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s elite army unit.
“They would protect his supreme leadership, and he would give the IRGC political cover to pursue its interests, including priority access to funds from the national budget, a major stake in the Iranian economy, a separate and powerful intelligence branch to rival the Intelligence Ministry, and a veto on key foreign-policy matters,” writes Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Washington-based thinktank Middle East Institute, in a Foreign Policy piece from October.
It is this particular arrangement that has begun to upset the Iranian populace. Reports suggest that the recent protests are an expression of anger against the regime for running vast foreign-policy operations while incomes of its citizens continue to slide.
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Trump changes Obama’s Iran policy
The signing of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, under US President Barack Obama, was considered a major turning point not just for US-Iran relations but for the region at large. Sanctions on Tehran were lifted and Iran agreed to “limit its sensitive nuclear activities” while allowing international inspections of local facilities.
Along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey, Iran was also beginning to have friendly relations with the US. Also, after years of crippling sanctions, Iran finally started to witness economic growth.
But the relations became hostile under Trump’s leadership. Last year, he ordered a unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed economic sanctions on Tehran once again.
The US justified its actions as a reaction to Iran’s support for militant groups across West Asia. If Iran wanted the sanctions lifted, it had to withdraw its support for all militant groups, from Houthis in Yemen to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Analysts argue that the core driving force of Trump’s foreign policy has been to outdo the legacy of his predecessor, Obama. In the case of Iran, his only problem with the 2015 nuclear deal was that it was signed by Obama, several American foreign-policy experts have argued.
Blowback from ‘maximum pressure’ strategy
Several reports also say that along with Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy towards Iran, the US President also kept expressing his will to negotiate with the Tehran regime. But this two-fold policy is inherently contradictory, argues Anne Gearan in The Washington Post.
The aforementioned Ayatollah-IRGC arrangement ensures that the moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani only has limited powers. He was the biggest proponent of the 2015 nuclear deal and opening up the Iranian economy to the world. And he had signed the 2015 nuclear deal despite warnings from Ayatollah and IRGC hard-liners.
But economic sanctions on Iran not only weaken Rouhani, they also strengthen the Ayatollah-IRGC consensus — driving Iran towards more radical regional policies.
Over the past few months, therefore, there is a perception that Iran has adopted a much more aggressive foreign policy. Tehran has scaled back its commitments to parts of the 2015 nuclear deal and is gradually re-starting development of nuclear weapons.
It has allegedly sabotaged oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies transit.
Iran was also recently accused of facilitating a drone attack on Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco via Houthi rebels in Yemen.
In essence, Trump’s sanctions have led to deterioration in Iran’s economy and forced Tehran to adopt a more reactionary and aggressive foreign policy. Both continue to fuel anger among Iranian citizens.
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Very unfortunate that common people are suffering so much.