New Delhi: Russian forces are mounting an aggressive military campaign in eastern Ukraine, as is evident by reports of relentless rocket strikes, bomb attacks, and artillery barrages in the Donbas region.
This renewed assault is the result of a reorientation of Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine with special emphasis on Donbas. With control of the cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk next on the agenda, Russia is aiming for control of Donbas by 9 May — the day it celebrates its victory in World War II.
Amid reports of Moscow “abandoning any hope” of a truce with Kyiv despite talks still underway in Ankara and Istanbul, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said Russian forces are in the process of encircling Ukraine’s fortified positions in the east.
In another show of intent, Russia has reportedly deployed 76 battalion tactical groups in the Donbas region. Each of these battalion tactical groups has 800 soldiers.
These developments have lent further credibility to those arguing that Russian President Vladimir Putin was using the talks to buy time to launch another land grab.
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Focus on Kramatorsk, Slovyansk
Having captured the city of Kreminna last week, Russian forces have now shifted focus to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk in the Donetsk Oblast. Kreminna, located along a critical highway, could act as a base for Russia to take control of Luhansk and Donetsk, which make up the Donbas region.
Experts believe the next step in Russia’s plan could be an attack on the two cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk — crucial to Ukraine’s defences — from Izyum in the north, Donetsk in the south, and Severodonetsk in the east.
Kramatorsk serves as a strategic military hub for the Ukrainians in Donbas. Control of Kreminna, which is an hour’s drive from Kramatorsk, offers Russian forces a base to launch an assault on the city.
Slovyansk, on the other hand, is key to Moscow’s objectives owing to its proximity to territories already under Russian control, including Izyum in the north, Donetsk in the south and Luhansk in the east.
Since Slovyansk lies further west from these territories, not having control over the city prevents Russia from forming one continuous landmass of annexed territories in Donbas.
Control over Slovyansk could further enable Moscow to bolster its campaign in Rubizhne – a city to the northeast of Slovyansk — and march westwards with the aim of annexing more territory.
Slovyansk was briefly controlled by the Russians during their campaign to annex Donbas in 2014.
9 May deadline
According to reports, the Kremlin aims to accomplish its objectives in eastern Ukraine by 9 May, the day marking Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
This is perhaps why General Alexander Dvornikov was, in the first week of April, given absolute power to manage the invasion in Ukraine. The change of guard shows that Russia has learnt from its command and logistical shortcomings in the earlier phase of the war.
The fact that Donbas is closer to the Russian border will also act in Russia’s favour since it would allow Moscow to ensure supply to its troops via short and secure lines, unlike the earlier part of the war, where disruptions in the supply chain stalled the advance of Russian forces.
A new centralised framework under General Dvornikov, coupled with improved supply chains, could allow Russia to sustain an aggressive assault in eastern Ukraine.
There is little doubt that the fate of the war in Ukraine now hinges on how quickly the needle moves in Donbas.
(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)
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