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HomeThoughtShotS Palshikar on Modi-Fadnavis 'entrapment’ politics & Nobel winner Banerjee’s RCT is...

S Palshikar on Modi-Fadnavis ‘entrapment’ politics & Nobel winner Banerjee’s RCT is dodgy

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Vital additions to empirical research 

Maitreesh Ghatak | Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics

The Hindu

Ghatak writes that randomised control trials (RCTs), the research methodology used by this year’s Economics Nobel laureates Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Kremer, were not a well-known concept back in the 1990s. He explains that in a RCT, one selects two groups that are similar and then randomly selects one to receive the “treatment being tested”, after which the outcome of the two groups are compared. The “key innovation” here is not the idea of “randomisation” but “applying it in real life with programmes” and “interventions that directly affect the lives of the poor.”

He argues that when feasible, RCTs are “a great tool to use” but for long-run aspects of “development and institutional change,” they are not feasible – although, a new generation of RCTs “are going beyond programme evaluation.”

Ghatak claims that RCTs can establish “what works,” but can’t say much about “what could have worked better.” However, RCTs deserve credit for “creating a consensus” that evidence is important in the context of policy. He maintains this is the most important impact of RCTs, especially in India, where “policy formulation and implementation” is done in a “highly centralised fashion.”

Are its intentions noble?

Sujoy Chakravarty | Experimental and behavioural economist, JNU

The Economic Times

Chakravarty evaluates the experimental approach in developmental economics that won Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer the Nobel Prize for Economics this year. They can either be championed “as leaders in alternative development strategy” or “agents of the illuminati”, he writes.

However, Chakravarty points out the shortcomings of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), used by Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer. First, RCTs can be too myopic and “miss the wood for the trees” by focusing on “proclivities” at the individual level and ignoring “overarching, systemic problems”. Second, the methodology is risky – mostly RCTs are “clueless” about the causality behind certain behaviours, writes Chakravarty. Third, the approach calls for “exorbitant costs” and Chakravarty suggests not using RCTs could make space for “funding of larger set of diverse research questions” instead of a risk-prone approach.

He adds that field experiments to test individual preferences is nothing new and has already been done by the likes of Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler, Elinor Ostrom and Hans Binswanger.

Following the Nobel win for Economics, RCTs should not become a “gold standard for research in development policy” as it could prompt international agencies to “study behaviours invasively in inappropriate contexts”, explains Chakravarty.

In Afghanistan’s polls, Donald Trump holds the trump card

Sanjay Kapoor | Editor of Hardnews Magazine

Hindustan Times 

Kapoor raises two questions before the announcement of the “much-delayed” Afghanistan’s presidential elections on October 19. First, how many votes “were actually” polled in the elections? Second, how will the “US-mediated peace process” impact the outcome of the polls?

With the US presidential elections drawing near, Trump’s resolve of bringing back his troops has “acquired urgency.” However, Kapoor argues that US may not “recall” its troops owing to other “geostrategic reasons”. The US has been trying to “scale down” its presence by “exploring through its envoy,” Zalmay Khalilzad how its military bases and interests could be protected by arm-twisting Pakistan. First, Pakistan had claimed a “legitimate interest” in meddling in Kabul to preserve its “strategic depth” but it assured the US that it had jettisoned the idea. Khalilzad also reached out to the Taliban to “counter the growing presence” of the IS. Finally, China owing to its investments in Pakistan doesn’t want “its assets to be impacted by violence.”

Kapoor concludes that the US has once again “returned” to the “centre-stage.” Further, the locals believe that whichever presidential candidate “listens to the US” will “get a shot at power.”

Historical shift in higher education

Mohandas Pai | Chairman, Aarin Capital Partners

Nisha Holla | Technology Fellow, C-CAMP

Financial Express

Pai and Holla show that year-on-year the enrolment of women in higher education is “rising faster” and with “clearer aspirations”, based on data primarily from the All India Survey of Higher Education (AISHE). They now comprise 48.6 per cent of enrolled students, a major jump from 44.6 per cent in the last seven to eight years. This is also the first year that the female Gross Enrolment Ratio has risen above male GER, “which stagnated at 26.3”, they write.

The authors predict that the next decade will “see the rise of the Indian Woman”, as more educated women join the workforce. However, data suggests that many women don’t get jobs after their education and are less mobile in search of skilled work as compared to men. Low workforce participation may also indicate that a large chunk of the 15-29 age bracket are still in school or college.

States like Bihar with high fertility rates must work towards “human capital development”, and India as a whole needs to build on this momentum.

The BJP’s double engine 

Suhas Palshikar | Chief Editor of Studies in Indian Politics

The Indian Express 

Maharashtra’s development “brought about” by the “double engine” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is “pumping” a lot of “political energy” into upcoming assembly election campaigns, writes Palshiker.

He lists some of the BJP’s approaches these elections. For one, the “entrapment” of the Shiv Sena, and the Congress and NCP’s “demoralisation” is not just their own failure but has been “systematically 0rchestrated’’. Corruption related inquiries are keeping the Opposition under “stress.” Further, he argues that the state’s “publicity machinery” has been “smart” presenting the government’s achievements. The most “important factor” to BJP’s “ascendance” has been its mobilisation of “non-dominant communities’’— eg, OBCs.

He concludes that the “double engine analogy” fits the BJP’s approach to resolving the “dilemma of balancing regional aspirations with the party’s all-India perspective.” However, Palshikar notes that the ruling party is “banking” on a “war of perceptions.” First, they create a perception of the government “doing well”, second, they hope to be “assessed better than their predecessors” and third the BJP is “relying on its ‘all-India image’”.

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