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CDS a huge step, says Sujan Chinoy, 2020s decade of smaller economies — Ruchir Sharma

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CDS appointment step towards seamless coordination in higher defence management 

Sujan R. Chinoy | Director general, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses

The Indian Express

Chinoy hails the appointment of outgoing Army chief General Bipin Rawat as the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) as a “huge step towards achieving seamless coordination and greater effectiveness in higher defence management structures by creating an enabling architecture that permits fuller expression on the part of our professional and armed forces”.

He argues that the CDS will be “dual-hatted” and will be expected to “promote jointness and integration and be the principal military adviser to the raksha mantri (Defence Minister)”. Moreover, Chinoy says that the “creation of the CDS is part of the fulfilment of commitments by the Modi government on defence matters, starting with the implementation of One Rank One Pension after 40 years, the establishment of the Defence Space and Cyber Agencies as also the Special Operations Division, Make in India initiative aimed at ensuring an ‘India First’ policy.”

Daring to recast a vision set in stone

Gautam Bhatia | Architect and sculptor

The Hindu

Bhatia questions the “cultural value” of Lutyens’ Delhi as it exists today, “a century later — “not just for an independent India, but a secular India, or even a Hindu India”. He writes that the government “plans to build a new Parliament House adjacent to the present one, convert the Secretariat into museums, demolish and replace a number of buildings along the Central Vista with structures more current and suited to bureaucratic functions”.

According to Bhatia, “Lutyens committees and heritage conservation groups have done more harm than good, leaving the place a sad reminder of missed architectural opportunities.” Other than “archaeological, there is today no real value to the original heritage of Lutyens,” he adds. Moreover, he writes that it is a given that “any change should be directed at guaranteeing a better life for its citizens over a better life for its bureaucrats” and thus, “the Central Vista’s transformation becomes more important than outright preservations”. It is imperative that “buildings with bureaucratic and political functions be moved north of Rajpath in such a way that all government functions can be isolated into an altogether separate and less important non-public zone,” argues Bhatia.

The “current representation of art, archaeology and archives randomly dispersed along inaccessible roads requires integration with other equally crucial presences in three cultural clusters”, he writes.  First, being history; second, “archives and library” and third, “arts and sciences”. This “thoughtful visualisation requires a rethink beyond bureaucratic regulations, a serious political will and altogether new possibilities of architectures,” concludes Bhatia.

In the 2020s smaller will be beautiful again

Ruchir Sharma | Global investor and author

The Times of India 

Sharma writes that “if history is a trend, the 2020s will be anything but another American decade”. He argues that while the US economy “grew faster than other rich countries”, “economic trends that define one decade rarely define the next”. Sharma writes that while the US was the “hottest economy” in the 1960s, after the “turn of the millennium, emerging nations made another strong run, and by 2010 forecasters were predicting that emerging markets would be the story of not only the next decade but of the next century”.

Furthermore, he writes that the US and China trade battle is “scaring off trade investment, which is instead shifting to smaller countries, including Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, the Netherlands and Ireland”. Sharma argues that “globalisation is thus gradually giving way to localisation, which makes this a promising time for countries with domestic markets large enough to support significant expansion in local businesses”. Moreover, “barriers to entry are falling, particularly since many of the hottest companies own few physical assets”. If the “usual pattern holds, it’s likely that America is peaking and smaller (not necessarily small) economies will make a comeback,” concludes Sharma.

Unemployment cannot cause agitations

Mahesh Vyas | Managing director & CEO, CMIE

Business Standard

Vyas refers to ThePrint’s Editor-in-chief Shekhar Gupta’s Saturday column where he explained that the joblessness of the 1960s and 70s was “followed by heightened nationalism” and argued that “once people have suffered joblessness and economic stall for a length of time, nationalism will no longer calm their anger”. Vyas, however, argues that “the link between unemployment and political agitations is not causal but is catalytical, at best”. He adds that “people do not get sufficiently angry to agitate because of prolonged joblessness or economic stall. Not in India.”

He explains that while unemployment is at 8 per cent (almost a 45-year high), the agitations in towns and campuses are against CAA-NRC-NPR and the highhandedness of the government and not due to unemployment. Vyas writes, “The BJP is a better organised party than any other in India and therefore, it is more likely to be successful in mobilising the stock of unemployed than others.” Moreover, unemployment in India affects very few and is not seen as a macro-economic problem and is even tolerated, he argues. Vyas concludes by saying, “Slowing growth and joblessness can impoverish us. They can be a catalyst for change but they are not sufficiently potent to morph into political agitations.”

Exceptional 2019: The year in which all growth projections for economy went haywire

Renu Kohli | Macroeconomist

Financial Express

Kohli begins by saying that the announcement of a $5 trillion economy by Prime Minister Modi after the 2019 general elections was hollow as there was no strategy or framework that made it look credible. She writes, “The FY20 budget must go down in history as the least impressive budget in response to a weak economy.”

Kohli states that 2019 was the year where all growth projections went haywire and the main reason for this was “the lack of policy window to respond, [and] to boost demand” that caused “consumer and business sentiments to tumble down.” She explains the drop in basis points of real GDP and writes, “It would not be surprising if 2019 became the year in which strongly held beliefs about India’s growth changed.”

She refers to the NBFC crisis, real estate crisis, negative spiral of auto industry and tax terrorism and argues that these issues worsened in 2019 and “restoring confidence is crucial for the economy in 2020.”

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